The Lakers, a team that seemed lost during winter, have suddenly turned things around. They’ve gone on a remarkable streak, winning seven games heading into their game against Miami on Thursday. That’s ten wins out of eleven overall, and they’ve managed this impressive run during a particularly challenging stretch of their schedule.
But let’s be real—this isn’t the same as the regular season. The playoffs are a different beast entirely. The Best of Seven format is brutal and doesn’t care about streaks or who you’ve beaten. It hinges on matchups and strategic adjustments. One tiny mistake can make a huge difference.
Luckily, we’re starting to see how the Lakers might match up in the first round of the playoffs.
As of Thursday, they held the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, sitting just two and a half games behind the sixth seed. If their current trajectory holds after February 1st, their first-round opponent could be Minnesota, Houston, or Denver.
Interestingly, five of the Lakers’ last eight games were against these three teams, giving them a solid chance to figure out which matchup might benefit them the most in the playoffs as the regular season winds down.
If the Lakers are aiming for a smooth passage into the next round, they’d probably hope for a matchup with the Timberwolves. Yes, the very same team that gave them a tough time last year. Their previous encounters turned the Lakers into an experiment in size mismatches.
That playoff series wasn’t just a defeat; it was an education in physicality.
Rudy Gobert dominated the paint, while Naz Reid and Julius Randle took their turns showing the Lakers just how significant size can be when utilized effectively.
But here’s the takeaway from recent weeks: this isn’t last year’s Lakers.
The current version is on a different path. The narrative has changed. They need to defend like it actually counts.
Deandre Ayton has reshaped the floor dynamics in a way that doesn’t always make the highlight reel but consistently shows up in the win column. He doesn’t have to outshine Gobert—just make him put in the work and keep things close. That’s already a shift from last postseason when Gobert exploited the Lakers’ smaller lineup.
Then there’s Marcus Smart, a player whose value becomes clear once he’s wearing the team colors.
He’s introduced a sort of beneficial chaos on the perimeter, allowing the Lakers to move in waves against Anthony Edwards instead of just hoping for the best.
Edwards always seems to be hunting for points, a hallmark of star players. But there’s a difference between merely scoring and orchestrating play. Currently, the Lakers have the defensive chops to limit his impact.
The Lakers swept their regular-season matchups against Minnesota by margins of 18, 1, and 14. When they push the pace and get out in transition—or when they draw fouls—Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and LeBron James blend seamlessly to create superior offensive numbers than most teams, including Minnesota.
Pretty telling, right?
But Denver? That’s another story.
The Nuggets boast the best offensive rating in the league, a conundrum that the Lakers haven’t entirely solved. Nikola Jokic might just be the top player in the league right now, making things look effortless.
Sure, the Lakers managed to win the season series against Denver 2-1, but both encounters this month were revealing. In their first meeting, the Nuggets made their dominance evident. In the other game on March 14, a missed free throw by Reaves turned into a fortunate rebound and a last-second basket that barely clinched a win for the Lakers.
Such nail-biters aren’t sustainable; they’re merely a means of surviving.
Now, Houston presents its own unique challenges. Even though the Lakers have secured back-to-back home wins, facing the Rockets is deceptively difficult.
They’re young and a bit chaotic, currently struggling with six losses in ten games. The Lakers seemed to remind them of their own place in the food chain when they visited Toyota Center, but youth is notorious for rearing its head when you least expect it.
A series against Houston would likely be anything but straightforward—expect frenetic energy, unpredictability, and emotional highs and lows. The Lakers may have claimed the season series 2-1, but anything could happen over a full playoff series with players like Kevin Durant, Armen Thompson, and Alperen Sengun in the mix.
In contrast, Minnesota feels a bit clearer.
There’s a rhythm to that matchup.
The familiarity works in their favor.
The Lakers are aware of where their opponents may falter, and more importantly, they have the skill sets needed to exploit those weaknesses.
Reeves has begun to play fearlessly, Doncic manages the pace effectively, and somehow, LeBron still manages to warp time when it counts.
Yet, lurking beneath this optimism is a caveat:
Be careful what you wish for.
Chasing the “right” opponent can sometimes lead a team to lose its focus. The Lakers don’t necessarily need to be perfect; they need to be adaptable, focused on health and discipline, along with a version of themselves that has been progressively challenging opponents these last few weeks.
If you’re weighing who stands the best chance for Game 1, Minnesota looks like the one to watch.
Should that matchup come to pass, don’t expect them to openly celebrate or share their comfort. Instead, look for a markedly different series than the one they endured last year.
