Recent Changes in Lakers’ Playoff Prospects
SAN FRANCISCO — Over the last two seasons, JJ Redick has often invoked a well-known Jay-Z lyric to describe the fluctuations in the NBA landscape. “Everything was good until just a week ago,” he has said repeatedly during his tenure as the Lakers’ coach, alluding to Jay-Z’s “A Week Ago” from his album, “Vol. 2…Hard Knock Life.”
While Redick hasn’t echoed this sentiment since April, it rings true even now.
Just a week ago, the Lakers were riding high as one of the most talked-about teams in the league. They had claimed victory in 16 of their last 18 games, secured a 50-win season, and clinched a playoff spot on March 31, fully in control of their postseason fate.
It’s intriguing how quickly circumstances can shift. In a matter of days, the team experienced a significant setback—a blowout loss to the Thunder, compounded by serious injuries to both Luka Doncic (who suffered a Grade 2 left hamstring tear) and Austin Reaves (dealing with a Grade 2 left oblique tear).
Following that, the Lakers faced two more defeats against the Mavericks and Thunder. Meanwhile, their rivals, the Nuggets and Rockets, have surged, with the Nuggets currently on a ten-game winning streak and the Rockets on one of seven games as of Thursday.
The Lakers, who once had a comfortable gap as the third team in the Western Conference standings, are now left questioning whether they’ll even make it to the first round of the playoffs.
After learning about Doncic’s injury status on April 3, Redick reassured the team of their mission: to secure the No. 3 seed and advance in the postseason. However, with Reaves’ situation becoming clearer and the losses accumulating, the goals started to evolve. “We have to prepare a group that can compete in a playoff series,” Redick noted, recognizing that the seeding aspirations might have drifted after the game against OKC.
The Nuggets, sitting in third place entering Thursday, will clinch that position unless they lose their two remaining regular-season games against the Thunder and Spurs.
For the Lakers to reclaim third place, they would need the Nuggets to drop at least one of those games. In fact, both losses may be required for the Lakers to step into the playoffs as the third seed.
Hence, it appears likely the Lakers will face off against the Rockets in a first-round matchup for the No. 4 vs. No. 5 seed.
Home court advantage will hinge on who finishes fourth. Neither team can drop below fifth, and the Timberwolves, already confirmed in sixth place, will host the Rockets on Friday.
Fortunately for the Lakers, they hold the tiebreaker over the Rockets. This means if the two teams end up with matching records, the Lakers would secure the higher seed and home-court advantage for the first round.
The Nuggets also have the tiebreaker over the Rockets, complicating matters further.
Lately, it seems the most likely scenario has the Lakers pitted against either the Rockets or Timberwolves in the opening round.
The potential clash between LeBron James and Kevin Durant looms large, with the Rockets appearing to be the most probable opponents. Their last playoff encounter was back in the 2018 NBA Finals, where Durant’s Warriors triumphed over James’ Cavaliers.
However, with the recent Lakers slump and the Rockets’ resurgence, the dynamics of this expected matchup have shifted significantly.
