Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) has decided not to run against Governor Kathy Hochul (D) after weighing the possibility for several months.
Instead, Lawler is pursuing re-election in his district as Democrats aim to unseat him, part of their broader strategy to take back control of the House. Interestingly, the Democrats experienced a decline of over six points in that same district last November.
Lawler is viewed as a moderate voice within the GOP and is seen as a strong candidate. Some Republicans anticipate that in the 2026 race, he could make a significant impact against Hochul.
Despite earlier discussions about running for the governorship, Lawler told The New York Times that he thinks he’s the best candidate to challenge Hochul, but decided it’s best to focus on re-election and continue the work he’s been doing.
There has been some influence from President Trump, who reportedly had discussions with Lawler and expressed preferences regarding the race.
Trump endorsed Lawler’s re-election in May, though some speculate he suggested that Rep. Elise Stefanik might be favored to run for governor.
While Trump hasn’t officially backed Stefanik for the gubernatorial race, she has been a close ally, and her name has come up in discussions about potential candidates.
Lawler previously stated he would make his decision about the governor’s race independently of what Stefanik did, basing it on his perceived chances to win.
The announcement was met with celebration from Democrats, who highlighted Trump’s influence on Lawler’s choice.
New York Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs remarked that Lawler appeared weak by backing down.
The Democratic Governor’s Association termed Lawler’s decision a significant setback for Republicans, arguing it indicates doubt about their chances in statewide races.
A Democratic spokesperson pointed out that Lawler’s inability to secure a gubernatorial run was more embarrassing than his challenges at home.
Initial polling indicates that Stefanik is leading among potential Republican candidates, while Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman is also contemplating a gubernatorial run but is currently focused on his re-election.
It seems that the Republicans might avoid a contentious primary, as only one of them—Lawler or Stefanik—might pursue the governorship.
Sources suggest that Stefanik is likely to launch her campaign sooner rather than later, showing confidence in her potential run.
Republicans are optimistic about their ability to compete for the governor’s office in 2026, seeing an opportunity in Hochul’s slim winning margin of about six points in 2022, which was closer than many anticipated.
Trump performed strongly in New York during the last presidential election, although he didn’t win the state by a large margin.
Despite the Republican enthusiasm, Hochul has a solid lead in currently available polls and is better recognized, leaving many voters undecided.
Democrats argue that Hochul holds a stronger position now than in 2022, despite the surprising GOP gains.
In a recent post, Lawler expressed that serving his district is his greatest honor and highlighted his accomplishments. He labeled Hochul as “the worst governor in America” and declared the need to defeat her in 2026.
Yet, he emphasized his intention to continue working in Washington.
“There’s more work ahead, and I’m still focused on putting my New York family first,” Lawler stated.
Updated: 9:19am
