Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella of the National Rally are leading the pack of candidates to potentially succeed French President Emmanuel Macron in the 2027 elections.
An opinion poll conducted by the French Institute of Public Opinion (IFOP) for Le Figaro assessed voter sentiments regarding candidates likely to participate in the upcoming presidential race.
In terms of preferred candidates, Le Pen, a former presidential contender, and her 28-year-old deputy Bardella stand at 42% and 43%, respectively.
Behind them are former Prime Minister and current Mayor of Le Havre, Édouard Philippe, with 41%, and 35% for Home Minister Gérald Darmanin, followed closely by former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal at 34%.
Meanwhile, only 14% expressed interest in seeing Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the leftist LFI party, in the race. The veteran candidate, who has run three times before, sits at 28%, while Rafael Glucksmann and French Communist leader Fabien Roussel receive 25% and 20%, respectively.
Despite the National Rally’s apparent lead, public sentiment shows increasing uncertainty regarding Marine Le Pen’s future in politics.
According to the survey, more than half of the respondents (53%) believe the frontrunners’ support has decreased from 74% just two months prior.
This significant drop follows a court ruling that prevents Le Pen from participating in politics for five years over alleged misuse of EU funds related to her party. Populist representatives have mounted an appeal against this decision, claiming it undermines democratic processes.
The outcome of the appeal is anticipated by next summer, potentially allowing her to enter the race. However, there is a growing belief that the National Rally may need to pivot toward Jordan Bardella, with 69% thinking he should run for president.
“We’ve been diligently analyzing the situation,” said Frédéric Dabi, director of IFOP. “There’s been a noticeable shift. Even within the RN, there’s emerging uncertainty.”
“Many French citizens harbor doubts about Marine Le Pen. This sentiment is somewhat echoed towards the RN, but Bardella could emerge as a natural candidate for their party,” he noted.
Despite his youth, Bardella has effectively positioned himself among the leading candidates for the Élysée Palace. A previous survey from IFOP suggested he could surpass other significant opponents in various first-round voting scenarios and succeed in a second round against all except Philippe, where the outcome was deemed a tie at 50-50.
