Marine Le Pen's populists last week thwarted French President Emmanuel Macron's attempt at destabilizing rule and appear to have enjoyed a rise in the polls ever since.
Opinion poll of large French newspapers le figaro And Sud Radio has discovered that Marine Le Pen has widened her lead over all other candidates in the French presidential election. Recent drama surrounding the collapse of the French government and Ms Le Pen's corruption trial have proved unable to stem her rise in popularity.
The next vote is not required by law until spring 2027, but France appears to be reeling from the next crisis and entering a de facto constitutional crisis, with questions about whether incumbent President Macron will serve out his full term in office. has become a pressing issue. Domestic debate.
The new government Mr. Macron installed earlier this year to run the country under him on a day-to-day basis collapsed last week after being in power for just three months, a record in modern French history. The centrist-led government, supported by Marine Le Pen's pro-border control campaign, has apparently grown too cocky, with Le Pen taking advantage of the idea that she will undermine border controls. did not want to risk gambling on his approval ratings in public opinion polls. In the end, the tax increase budget was too large, so she pulled the plug.
However, it appears that the French people were wrong to blame Le Pen for Emmanuel Macron's failure to win votes or form a stable government. Opinion polls so far already show that the public overwhelmingly condemns President Macron, and even the outgoing prime minister he has chosen to take over the issue is in the public's eyes. It looks like he got away unharmed and innocent.
le figaro find Compared to the last time the poll was conducted in September, Le Pen has risen by two to three points following the drama in Paris, leaving her with an 11-point lead over her closest rival to the next French president. The paper points out that this is “despite the vote on the censure motion” last week, saying that if Emmanuel Macron's government is toppled, Le Pen and her party's National Rally (R'Assemblement Nationale, RN) It once again revealed France's underlying belief that, far from gaining further support, it would be damaged. to voters.
The newspaper said Le Pen “has almost reached the level of François Mitterrand, who narrowly won the 1974 election.”
Because it is unclear who each party would field as a candidate in a theoretical snap presidential election, French polls tend to test several different scenarios, each with more than a dozen candidates. be. For example, in the anti-mass immigration RN, either Le Pen, who ran unsuccessfully in the past three French presidential elections, or her rising star deputy Jordan Bardera could fill that role. It is thought that.
As many as eight left-wing politicians from parties ranging from social democrats to full-fledged communists are running as candidates, and it is likely that several of them will actually be on the ballot.
Nevertheless, le figaro According to opinion polls, there is no combination of party leaders that could prevent the RN from winning first place in this election. In her best-case scenario, Le Pen would have 38 points to Gabriel Attal's 20, replacing Emmanuel Macron due to the two-term limit. Le Pen will also defeat centre-right former French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe by 11 points.
However, none of these guarantees Le Pen's appointment at the Elysée Palace. France uses a two-stage electoral process, with many candidates participating in the first round, the lowest-performing candidates being eliminated in the second round, and then the best candidate being chosen. This is a system designed to keep outsiders out, and highly unbalanced as the second round allows for a tactical coalition of all of France's traditional political parties against one undesirable new entrant. may produce significant results.
A perfect demonstration of the system working as intended was this year's snap election, which Mr Macron called to consolidate his power, but which backfired spectacularly. Although Le Pen's RN came in first place in terms of votes, it actually came in third place. won the seat. This may also apply to presidential elections, but it was last achieved in the 1990s.
But for now, it remains to be seen whether Marine Le Pen, who is in court on charges of embezzlement from the European Union, and the weakening of the French government could have a serious impact on her polling ratings. The question surrounding this may have been settled.
