It's incorrect to view the WNBA Finals as a matchup between the up-and-coming Liberty seeking their franchise's first title and the once-great Minnesota Lynx seeking to raise their fifth flag.
That's because Liberty are loaded with elite players and are set up as strong betting favorites after dominating the league for the past five months. The Lynx, on the other hand, needed to carve a path from a preseason whim to becoming a clear championship contender.
And it would be too simplistic to describe this head-to-head matchup, which the Lynx won 3 games to 1 in 2024, including the Commissioner's Cup final, as a matchup between Liberty's No. 1 offense and Minnesota's No. 2 defense. Too much.
That's because it changes the fifth-ranked Lynx's offense, which can spread the floor and run the ball at full speed (they led the WNBA in assists and 3-point shooting percentage per game).
Also, this is too narrow a definition of a Liberty team. While Liberty teams have been prone to brutal stagnation on offense (see: 6 points in the third quarter of Game 3 of the semi-finals against the Aces), they now have some breathtaking defense (see: 4th quarter) Game 4 clincher).
Let's take a closer look at the matchups that will determine the fate of the finals.
MVP
Rarely has a matchup been as clear and important as Brianna Stewart vs. Nafeesa Collier.
They are both top-three MVP finishers (Collier second, Stewart third). They play the same position (power forward). They share the same alma mater (Collier was a freshman on Stewart's four-time college championship team). They are also business partners and co-founded an exciting new 3v3 league (Unrivaled) that debuted this offseason.
Their roles are also similar. An all-world defensive anchor flying around to block “help” shots and a Swiss Army knife on the offensive end to close the scoring gap from post outs to the 3-point line.
Based on his recent form, the 28-year-old Collier will have the edge (27.1 points and 9.6 rebounds per game (including games of 38 and 42 points) in the playoffs, compared to Stewart's 20.0 points and 9.6 rebounds per game) and 8.2 rebounds). But Stewart, 30, is a two-time Finals MVP for a reason, and he's not in the mood to pass the torch.
Edge: even
point guard
Neither Sabrina Ionescu nor Courtney Williams are point guards in the classic sense. They are natural scorers and deft pick-and-roll operators, and are responsible for much of the team's ball-handling, especially in critical moments.
Q: It's a mismatch in terms of evaluation. Ionescu has the pedigree of a No. 1 pick, a Spike Lee DAP, and a CarMax commercial. Williams signed with Minnesota as a free agent, making him his fourth team in four years.
But Williams can really play. She averaged 11.1 points and 5.5 assists during the regular season and had 24 points in Tuesday's semifinal winner-take-all game against the Sun. She is also a defensive pest with long arms. Williams will likely protect Ionescu, but the reverse is not true.
But Ionescu took his game to another level. She averaged a career-high 18.2 points during the season and is averaging 20.7 points in the postseason. There may not be a better guard in the world right now.
Edge: Liberty
shooting
The Liberty was the WNBA's most prolific 3-point shooting team during the regular season, but the Lynx had a healthy advantage in efficiency (38.0 percent vs. 34.9 percent).
Also keep an eye out for Bridget Carleton (44.4 percent), Kayla McBride (40.7 percent) and center Alana Smith (39.8 percent).
Rookie Leonie Fivic, who recently entered the starting lineup, has emerged as the Liberty's most reliable shooter, making 13 of 22 (59.1 percent) in six playoff games after hitting 43.3 percent in the regular season. are.
Edge: Lynx
rebound
Watch out for aggressive boards as areas that Liberty can exploit. The Lynx ranked second-to-last in the WNBA in defensive rebounding percentage (68.2 percent), while the Liberty were the most effective rebounding team in the entire league (52.5 total rebounding percentage).
This is where Liberty center Jonquel Jones (nine rebounds per game) can dominate.
Edge: Liberty
depth
Liberty is the only team to have a future Hall of Famer (Courtney Vandersloot) off the bench. They also have veterans Kayla Thornton and Kennedy Burke who can impact games with their defense and energy.
The Lynx will likely be in just the seventh layer, with Misha Hines-Allen, who was picked up at the trade deadline, as a forward and Natisha Heedemann as a guard.
Edge: Liberty
coaching
Cheryl Reeve, fresh off leading Team USA to an Olympic gold medal, is on the WNBA Coaching GOAT shortlist, and her fifth time here with a newly assembled starting five that plays beautifully organized ball. The ring may be decided.
Credit to Sandy Brondello for inspiring Liberty after last year's setback and playing with better chemistry this time around.
Edge: Lynx
prediction
Jonathan Lehman: The Five Freedoms
Bridget Riley: The Five Freedoms
Andrew Crane: 5 Year Lynx
Peter Bott: The Four Freedoms
