Libyan Warlord Acquires Drones Despite Arms Embargo

Despite an arms embargo in place since 2011, Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar has reportedly been able to obtain combat drones from China and Turkey, as highlighted by Reuters on Thursday.

Commercial satellite images indicate the presence of modern drones at al-Khadim air base in eastern Libya, which is under the control of Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA). It seems the air base has been modified to accommodate these new assets. This development follows the establishment of the Government of National Stability (GNS) around four years ago.

In contrast, the United States and United Nations recognize the rival Government of National Unity (GNU) based in Tripoli. Haftar attempted to take control of Libya by force back in 2014, which led to a protracted civil war lasting six years and drew in multiple external powers.

Although drones have seen use throughout this civil conflict, the ones observed at al-Khadim are noted for being both newer and more advanced. One is suspected to be a Chinese Hilong-1 reconnaissance and attack drone, while the other two are believed to be the well-known and cost-effective Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones, which have gained notoriety for their effectiveness in recent conflicts.

The Chinese “Hiryu,” introduced in 2018, boasts the ability to cover large distances and operate across various weather conditions. Previously, Haftar’s forces utilized older models such as the Wing Loong 2, which seem to have been retired after 2020, possibly because the UAE retrieved them after supporting Haftar during earlier skirmishes.

While technically constrained by the UN embargo, enforcement appears lax, facilitating external parties in arming rival factions. An interesting aspect of this situation is that Haftar’s forces seemingly lack the necessary expertise to operate and maintain such advanced drones, suggesting that their suppliers might also be providing skilled personnel.

Analysts posit that Haftar’s acquisition of Chinese drones may be a strategy to offset the overwhelming advantage held by the Tripoli government in aerial capabilities, especially those bolstered by Turkey. This context could explain the presence of Turkish drones within his arsenal.

Anas El Gomati from the Sadeq Institute speculates that Haftar may not intend to use the new drones against his western rivals, where he already has considerable airpower. Instead, they might be utilized to secure supply lines to Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, which some allege are receiving Haftar’s backing.

Gomati further suggested these drones might symbolize a significant achievement for Haftar, reflecting his ability to equip his military even after a cease-fire deal seemed to curtail his ambitions.

This peculiar dynamic illustrates Haftar’s perceived power, perhaps even superseding that of the GNU, given that he controls crucial resources such as oil and coastlines, and plays a notable role in migration routes into Europe.

According to speculation, external supporters like Russia might be protecting Haftar’s oil assets and even providing assistance with drone operations, while the UAE continues its financial backing despite its formal recognition of the GNU.

Gomati describes this situation as a “pantomime,” revealing the stark divide in Libya and highlighting Haftar’s authoritarian grip over wealth and understanding of regional politics.

A former U.S. envoy compared Haftar’s aspirations to that of a fictional epic hero, asserting that he sees himself as a savior emerging from the desert, despite history suggesting otherwise.

Interestingly, it seems that Haftar is preparing for succession, with his sons lined up to inherit his power and assets, a transition that may shape Libya’s future beyond the warlord’s own tenure. Saddam Haftar, his eldest son and the LNA’s chief of staff, appears to be the designated successor and may be more receptive to unifying Libya compared to his father.

Reports indicate that U.S. diplomats are becoming involved in discussions about potentially uniting the rival Libyan governments, with Saddam Haftar as a central figure in those talks.