Key Insights:
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The Bitcoin Aviv ratio is now lower than its historical peak, suggesting it might surpass $330,000 before reaching the cycle’s top.
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Commercial Bitcoin holdings saw a significant drop in 2025, indicating that strategic accumulation by entities like Metaplanet and BlackRock is occurring.
Bitcoin (BTC) has faced some ups and downs recently, yet analysis indicates it could potentially rise by another 300% this cycle. Technical analyst Gert Van Lagen pointed out the Aviv ratio, which measures Bitcoin’s money supply against invested capital, excluding miner rewards.
Typically, when the Aviv ratio goes beyond a +3σ mean deviation, it hints at the cycle’s peak. For instance, BTC hit $1,200 in 2013, nearly $20,000 in 2017, and around $69,000 in 2021. Right now, the Aviv ratio is below its former high.
This ratio offers a valuable perspective on market trends, reflecting investor behavior and locked-in value. When it spikes, it often indicates significant trading activity or profit-taking that occurs before major price shifts. Van Lagen’s analysis connects this with Bitcoin’s cyclical nature. Though, there are questions about how accurately this predicts market behavior, especially given the inherent volatility.
Additionally, data shows a notable shift: commercial Bitcoin holdings dropped from 166,500 to 137,400 in 2025. This suggests large investors might not be feeling the pressure to sell, possibly leaning towards long-term storage instead.
This year, there has also been a noticeable decline in balances at OTC desks, alongside a robust influx into Bitcoin ETFs, amassing a net worth of $12.818 billion. This trend is largely due to strategic acquisitions by institutional players, including new entries like Metaplanet, which has acquired 10,000 BTC. BlackRock’s crypto holdings are now over $70 billion, reflecting the intentions of major market investors.
Market Update: #BlackRock added an additional $250 million #Bitcoin on June 17th. Its current holdings exceed $70 billion.
The Electricity Act will establish Bitcoin price targets ranging from $220,000 to $330,000.
In a similar vein to Van Lagen’s prediction of $330,000, researcher Sminston has also identified a potential cycle peak for BTC, suggesting prices could range from $220,000 to $330,000 by applying a 365-day simple moving average and a certain model.
At present, BTC trades around $104,000, suggesting it would need to rise between 100% and 200% to hit those targets. This aligns with moments when prices have exceeded historical trendlines.
Nonetheless, some caution exists regarding this model; it questions the notion that reduced volatility implies Bitcoin’s price cycle is stable, as evidenced by consistent deviations from the trendline. While the optimism in this analysis is palpable, researchers note that it is based on just four market cycles, which invites some skepticism.
Cointelegraph has also indicated that various indicators suggest the bull market could push BTC to $230,000, even if it only reaches $112,000 without suggesting an end to the cycle. Indicators like the Pi Cycle Top and MVRV signify that there is more room for growth in this bull market.
It’s worth noting that this article does not serve as investment advice. All trading involves risks, and it’s essential for individuals to conduct their own research before making decisions.
