Longtime Republican pollster Frank Luntz said in an interview Wednesday that 2024 polls are “leaning heavily” toward VP Harris as she holds a “hot lead” while former President Trump increasingly commits “political suicide.”
Luntz said Harris’ recent surge in popularity has attracted some voters who might not have voted in November if Biden had remained the party’s nominee, and he predicted that could have an impact on lower-ranking candidates as well, in an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
“She’s attracting people who aren’t going to vote for either Trump or Biden, so the entire Electoral College has changed,” Luntz said, “and if this trend continues, we have to start considering Democrats winning the Senate and the House.”
“People who are actually participating. She has the intensity right now. She has the intensity advantage. She has the demographic advantage. And I’ve never seen anything like this happen in a 30 day period in my life,” Luntz continued.
Asked how much the number of people voting for Harris would affect the overall electoral college, Luntz said: “One percent, maybe two percent. That’s it. But it’s enough.”
Luntz suggested there are three factors that drive support for a candidate: national demographics, issues and circumstances, adding that “when the demographics change, the whole picture changes.”
“The issues and the circumstances are in Donald Trump’s favor. He should win this election. But there are so many factors in Harris’ favor that he’s not winning.”
“I’m doing a focus group for a major news organization tonight with undecided voters under 27. But you can’t recruit young women to this because they don’t exist as undecided voters,” he said.
Luntz said Harris’s appeal is helping to shift a broad range of voters to her, especially disillusioned young people and women.
“All the ‘undecided’ people are leaning towards Harris. All the ‘weak on Trump’ people are leaning towards ‘undecided.’ That’s a big shift,” Luntz said.
Luntz also said Trump sometimes appears to undermine his own qualities, pointing to his recent praise of Elon Musk, the owner of X Corp., for firing union members who had gone on strike for better working conditions.
“Why would Donald Trump publicly say he wants to fire the same union members he currently employs,” Luntz said. “It’s ridiculous. It’s like he’s lost control.”
“There are billionaires watching this show who are putting a lot of money into Donald Trump, and they don’t understand why he’s committing political suicide,” Luntz said.
