Cuomo and Mamdani in Close Race for NYC Mayor Amid Sliwa’s Possible Exit
A new poll suggests that if Republican Curtis Sliwa were to drop out of the mayoral race, former Governor Andrew Cuomo might find himself in a tight contest with frontrunner Zoran Mamdani. The Gotham Poll and City AARP report indicates that 44.6% of New Yorkers would back Mamdani if Sliwa withdrew, while 40.7% would lean towards Cuomo. With a 4-point margin of error, Cuomo is certainly within reach.
Currently, with all candidates still running, Mamdani holds a significant lead, garnering 43.2% of voter support, compared to Cuomo’s 28.9% and Sliwa’s 19.4%.
Interestingly, the poll points out that a sizable portion of undecided voters—78%—are over 50 years old. This demographic shift could play a crucial role in Cuomo’s chances, especially as younger voters appear to favor Mamdani.
Stephen Graves, the president of Gotham Polling and Analytics, remarked, “The undecided older voters may be pivotal in determining the next mayor if it comes down to two strong candidates.” It’s not uncommon for these older voters to be the most reliable bloc at the polls.
The data was derived from demographic insights based on the 2021 elections, where nearly 40% of the voters were under 50. However, there’s a possibility that Mamdani’s support among younger voters might be underestimated, particularly given his campaign’s ability to attract many new young voters recently.
Both Sliwa and Cuomo, who is now running as an independent after losing the Democratic primary to Mamdani, have stated they won’t exit the race.
The survey, which sampled 1,040 likely voters over two days last week, revealed that the cost of living in District 5 is the top concern across all age groups, followed closely by issues of public safety and housing affordability.
Almost 43% of participants identified as very liberal or somewhat liberal, which bodes well for Mamdani, who previously surprised many by defeating Cuomo and outgoing Mayor Eric Adams in the Democratic primary.
Mamdani, a 33-year-old state representative from Queens, has stirred some anxiety within the city’s political circles, particularly among the Jewish community, over his leftist views, including his stance on Israel and Hamas.
Cuomo, at 67, has criticized Mamdani’s experience level and reiterated during a recent debate that Sliwa’s presence is detrimental to his chances of a comeback. He stated on a radio show that “voting for Sliwa is essentially a vote for Mamdani.”
Sliwa, 71, known for founding the Guardian Angels, turned the tables during the debate by suggesting that Cuomo should be the one to resign.
Ultimately, it seems New York’s older voters might play a decisive role in the upcoming election. AARP New York State Director Beth Finkel emphasized that the issues at stake affect not just seniors, but all New Yorkers.
