Week 10 Sunday starts early with a game between the Panthers and Giants in Germany.
We continue to host high-profile games throughout the day and are back to provide props for your favorite players on the board.
They went 2 wins and 1 loss in the games selected in this column last week, bringing their season record in this column to 20 wins and 5 losses.
Overall, player props have a 78-53 record this season with a profit of 29.76 units.
Malik Nabors 72.5+ receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
Welcome to Malik Nabaas' celebration week.
The Carolina Panthers have a formidable pass defense that ranks 31st in DVOA and EPA, and we expect Neighbors to take full advantage of that.
Before Chris Olave suffered an unfortunate concussion on his second drive last week, the Panthers had allowed five straight WR1s to clear the prop's over.
According to ESPN tracking data, Nabers leads the NFL in open scoring with an absurd 99. The next closest wide receiver is 84. The rookie has been operating on another level this season.
The problem is a poor offensive line and Daniel Jones' inconsistent accuracy, but that won't be too much of an issue this week.
The Panthers rank last in pressure rate this season, and Nabors is happy when Jones stays clean in the pocket. When he's not facing pressure, Nabers has an impressive 44% run rate per route and 3.12 yards per route.
Nabors also plans to have some positive regression on deep passes. He has 17 deep targets, which ranks third in the NFL, but he has only caught three of them.
That reversal should happen this week in Germany, as the Panthers rank 27th in DVOA against deep passes.
Javonte Williams' longest rush under 10.5 yards (-105, bet 365)
I was a proponent of Javonte Williams playing in this number last week against the Ravens, but I'll get back to it here in a second.
The Chiefs have the best run defense in the league this season. They rank first in adjusted line yards allowed to running backs and second in second-level yards and open field yards, according to FTN.
The Chiefs have the second-lowest explosive rushing rate in the NFL and the second-fewest yards after contact per attempt, according to fantasy points data.
Meanwhile, Williams ranks 39th out of 47 qualifying running backs with a 2.9% explosive rush rate and 42nd with 2.06 yards after contact per attempt.
With the Broncos trailing by seven points on the road, we can't expect much volume from Williams, especially since Denver's coaching staff reportedly wants rookie Audric Estim to be more involved going forward.
Williams has been below that line in four of five games this season, with 12 or fewer rushing attempts.
Najee Harris over 63.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings)
After a rough start to the season, Najee Harris has been on a roll lately, clearing 100 or more rushing yards in three straight games.
Since Week 6, he has gained 3.56 yards after contact per attempt and 0.37 missed tackles per attempt compared to 40 eligible running backs, according to Fantasy Points data. It is ranked 2nd among the
This week, Harris will play against the Commanders, who rank 28th in rushing percentage. Although the Washington pass defense has improved dramatically under Dan Quinn's leadership, the run defense is still very weak.
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Pittsburgh ranks second in the league in rushing play percentage at 52.7%, and that remains the case here.
Washington is especially vulnerable to the run in man-gap schemes, gaining the most yards per carry (6.17) and having the fourth-highest success rate in the NFL (57%). Harris has averaged 6.14 YPC and shot 59.1% from man-gap schemes since Week 6, the sixth-best mark in the NFL.
Cordarrelle Patterson returns this week and is getting some value on this line, but I still think Harris' absolute minimum line is 14+ attempts in this game, and he's only gotten one game this season. I think I'm hitting all of them except for that.
If he's getting that amount, it's hard not to predict him to exceed this number given the ideal matchup.
(Please note that lines fluctuate throughout the week, sometimes dramatically. So if you need help determining whether your number is still playable, please contact us at X. @wayne_bets)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He gained 84.5 units across two sports for an ROI of 6.27%.
