Poll Shows Mamdani Leading in NYC Mayoral Race

As the debate approaches on Thursday, a recent Fox News poll indicates that Democratic candidate Zoran Mamdani is leading in the race for New York mayor. Many voters believe he’s the candidate best equipped to tackle the city’s pressing issues. His personal ratings are promising, and he’s attracting a growing base of supporters.

In fact, the self-described democratic socialist holds a 21-point advantage among registered voters in the city. Currently, 49% back Mamdani, while independent candidate Andrew Cuomo garners 28% and Republican Curtis Sliwa receives 13% support.

Mamdani has even surpassed the 50% mark among likely voters, achieving 52% support compared to Cuomo’s 28% and Sliwa’s 14%.

According to the FOX News poll, dissatisfaction with New York City’s trajectory is pushing voters towards Mamdani.

Despite withdrawing from the race on September 28th, current mayor and independent candidate Eric Adams still has the backing of 2% to 3% of voters.

“Since Mr. Adams withdrew after the deadline for name removal, he remains on the ballot,” explained Chris Anderson, a Democratic pollster. His firm, Beacon Research, collaborates with Republican Daron Shaw on the Fox News poll. “We’ve included him because there are still individuals who will vote for him, and those votes will be counted.”

Mamdani’s approval has risen since the last Fox News survey in September, gaining 5 points among eligible voters and 4 points among those registered.

The focus of the analysis is primarily on registered voters in the city.

Mamdani attracts his strongest support from very liberal voters (78%), those under 30 (67%), Democrats (63%), and women under 45 (62%).

Cuomo’s supporters tend to be moderates (44%), seniors aged 65 and above (44%), women over 45 (42%), and independents (35%).

Among a small proportion of Jewish voters, 42% favor Cuomo, 38% support Mamdani, and 13% back Sliwa.

Sliwa’s base primarily consists of Republicans (60%) and Trump supporters who favor him for the 2024 election (58%). Interestingly, white voters without a college degree show a split preference among the three main candidates, with each receiving about 30% support.

More than half of nonwhite voters align with Mamdani, including 51% of black voters and 52% of Hispanics, while around 30% support Cuomo.

A more significant proportion of Mamdani’s supporters express enthusiasm about voting (75%) compared to Sliwa’s (59%) and Cuomo’s (43%). Furthermore, 89% of Mamdani supporters are confident in their choice, in contrast to Sliwa’s 82% and Cuomo’s 75%.

Another poll indicates continuing support for taxing the wealthy over capitalism.

When it comes to voting motivation, a striking 88% of Mamdani’s base is voting for him directly, opposed to 12% who are voting against others. In comparison, notable minorities of Cuomo (40%) and Sliwa (32%) supporters are driven by opposition to other candidates.

“It raises an interesting question about voter turnout,” remarks Shaw. “Will those who are against Mamdani but indifferent towards other candidates quietly back Cuomo?”

Voters have pointed to crime (25%), cost of living (20%), and housing (16%) as the primary issues facing New York City. Other concerns have not reached significant levels, although homelessness is just below at 8%. This is quite similar to the previous month’s findings, but Cuomo’s earlier 12-point advantage among those worried about crime has since shrunk.

Currently, Mamdani leads by five points among crime-focused voters and maintains his advantage among those concerned with the cost of living and housing issues.

While just 3% of voters think illegal immigration is NYC’s top problem, a remarkable 66% believe ICE operates too aggressively in deportations, reaffirming the city’s sentiments towards immigration policies.

When asked who can effectively address the city’s challenges, Mamdani stands out. Between 40% and 49% of voters believe he can better tackle the local economy, cost of living, housing, taxes, and crime, meanwhile Cuomo’s figures range from 32% to 33%, and Sliwa falls behind with 17% to 26% (his highest approval being at 26% for crime).

On personal characteristics, Mamdani also fares better. Almost two-thirds of respondents feel he is someone who “cares about people like you,” is “honest and trustworthy,” and can bring about necessary change. In comparison, fewer than six in ten rated Cuomo on these traits (57%, 50%, and 53% respectively), while Sliwa received similar scores of 51%, 50%, and 43%.

The one area where Cuomo excels is being perceived as a “strong leader.” About 63% agree he fits this description, along with 61% for Mamdani. Sliwa, on the other hand, has 44% who see him as strong.

Since the September survey, all three candidates have improved their favorability ratings, with Mamdani increasing by 8 points, Sliwa also by 8 points, and Cuomo rising by 5 points. Although Cuomo is still viewed less favorably than Mamdani, his net favorability rating has seen a turnaround from -5 points (45% favorable, 50% unfavorable) to +2 (50-48%).

Trump’s favorability remains steady at 24%, while Governor Kathy Hochul’s rose by 2 points to 55%.

New York Attorney General Letitia James, recently indicted on charges of mortgage fraud, still holds a notable 59% favorability among city voters. Following her indictment, she attended Mamdani’s rally alongside Hochul, receiving a warm welcome. Despite having the highest likability rating of any tested, she also faces an 11% unknown rate.

This surge in positive sentiment isn’t just towards individuals but extends to the city itself, with 42% expressing satisfaction with current conditions, marking a 5-point increase since September.

Additionally…

With the initial phase of President Trump’s Middle East peace deal underway, a survey showed New York voters are now 6 points more inclined to support Palestinians than Israelis, a slight decrease from an 8-point margin since September.

President Trump finalized the peace agreement on October 13th. The survey ran from October 10th to 14th.

Among those supporting Palestinians, 70% back Mamdani, while supporters of Israel are divided, with 39% favoring Cuomo, 28% for Mamdani, and 23% for Sliwa.

For more detailed breakdowns, refer to the provided crosstabulation and top-line tables.

The Fox News poll, co-led by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, was conducted from October 10th to 14th, 2025, involving 1,003 randomly selected registered voters in New York City. The results closely reflect the broader voter demographics as they were carefully weighted for factors like age, race, and education.