Zohran Mamdani, a socialist candidate in New York City, has a significant lead in the mayoral race, according to a poll released Tuesday. He’s ahead by 21 points, garnering support from 45% of respondents. Interestingly, 24% of those surveyed expressed nostalgia for former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who is running against current Mayor Eric Adams and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa.
In a breakdown of the Black electorate, nearly half, about 47%, indicated they would back Mamdani in the general elections. Cuomo received 26% support, Adams 11%, and Sliwa only 5%. If Adams were to exit the race, Mamdani’s lead would decrease to 16 points, with him at 46%, Cuomo at 30%, and Sliwa at 18%.
In a direct matchup between Mamdani and Cuomo, the margin narrows to 10 points, with Mamdani at 49% and Cuomo at 39%. The remaining voters are undecided or leaning towards other candidates.
This Marist survey aligns with multiple polls indicating Mamdani’s double-digit leads in various sectors, particularly notable among independent voters. The vote occurred just before Governor Kathy Hochul endorsed Mamdani on Sunday.
Sliwa, who founded the Guardian Angels, remarked that despite any attempts from Trump to upend the race, he hasn’t believed a one-on-one showdown could challenge Mamdani effectively.
Most voters (63%) believe Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist, will likely become the mayor, which is quite a confident prediction.
“Mamdani is gaining traction,” noted Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist University Institute of Public Opinion. “It’s getting late early,” he added, signifying how time is of the essence in politics.
Among younger, liberal voters, Mamdani is particularly strong. For those under 45, about 62% back him, while Cuomo only receives 14% support in the latest polls. It’s a different picture with older voters, where Mamdani holds 33%, Cuomo 30%, Sliwa 21%, and Adams 8%.
For ultra-liberal voters, support for Mamdani jumps to an impressive 86%, with 65% of generally liberal voters backing him as well. On the other hand, moderate voters show a slight preference for Cuomo (35%) over Mamdani (31%), with Sliwa garnering 17% and Adams 9%. In the conservative spectrum, Sliwa leads with 42%, with Cuomo at 24%, Adams at 16%, and Mamdani at 14%.
Among non-white voters, Mamdani holds 22%, compared to Cuomo at 12%, Sliwa at 8%, and Adams at 8%. In contrast, Mamdani finds stronger support among white voters, with 39%, while Cuomo is at 26% and Sliwa at 23%.
Latino voters also favor Mamdani, with 52% support, while Cuomo receives 21%, Sliwa 17%, and Adams 7%.
Cuomo has criticized Mamdani for his stance on Israel, suggesting that his support for boycotts might stir concerns over anti-Semitism. However, Jewish voters appear to be divided: 35% for Mamdani, another 35% for Cuomo, 17% for Adams, and 11% for Sliwa.
Mamdani is leading in all boroughs, notably in Brooklyn where he’s ahead by 33 points. One major challenge for Cuomo, as pointed out by the pollster Miringoff, is that voters perceive Mamdani more positively. Currently, 52% hold a favorable view of Mamdani, while only 40% have a negative impression.
In comparison, Cuomo has a 39% favorable rating, with 59% unfavorable, while 68% of voters view Adams negatively and 51% for Sliwa.
Miringoff highlighted that for Cuomo to penetrate Mamdani’s support base, especially among younger and liberal voters, he might need to emphasize his progressive achievements, such as support for gay marriage during his governorship.
Looking ahead to the November 4th election, there could be opportunities for Cuomo and his rivals to challenge Mamdani more effectively as voter engagement typically increases.
The Marist poll surveyed 885 voters online from September 8th to 11th, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
