Iowa State arguably got a lucky call late in the Final Four against UW, as the Huskies were called for a one-point moving screen on their final offensive possession and ultimately lost by two.
The Hawkeyes didn’t play that well, coming out of a double-digit deficit early on and winning by two points as 3.5-point favorites.
Superstar guard Kaitlin Clark finished with just 21 points on 7-of-18 shooting (39 percent), but the team shot 7-of-25 from deep (28 percent).
Meanwhile, the Gamecocks dominated North Carolina State in their Final Four matchup, winning by 19 points and going 36-0.
As a result, South Carolina is a 6.5-point favorite to win the title game.
This is a matchup of strength against strength. Iowa State’s best offense in the nation will face South Carolina’s top defense in the nation.
But I think gamecock would work well here.
The Hawkeyes pick up the pace in transition and use secondary action in the half court to isolate Clark.
Unfortunately for them, the Gamecocks rank in the top 15 teams nationally in transition points per possession allowed, off-ball screen PPP allowed, and isolation PPP allowed. South Carolina can cover all sets, especially the ones Iowa State wants.
Meanwhile, Iowa’s defense is subpar no matter how you look at it.
The Hawkeyes win by outscoring opponents instead of stopping them. As a result, Iowa State ranks below the national average in defensive rating (94.4) and allowed PPP (30th percentile).
That’s not all bad, but I don’t feel good about Iowa’s chances of going even with South Carolina in that regard.
Shamcox runs a rim-based offense, scoring on post-ups and cutting sets while relentlessly crashing the offensive boards.
Do you want to bet on college basketball?
Look at Camila Cardoso in this regard. She scores 11 points per game over her points in paint and 4 points in second chances while recording her 1.08 post-up PPP (91st percentile).
The Hawkeyes are especially vulnerable to post-up sets, ranking 19th in the nation in post-up points per game.
The Hawkeyes also aren’t a great defensive rebounding team, allowing more than nine second-chance points per game (61st percentile) and a PPP of 0.99 (43rd percentile).
In other words, the Gamecocks rank in the top five nationally in paint points per game (41), while the Hawkeyes rank in the 38th percentile in paint points allowed per game (30).
If Iowa State wants to win, it needs to get past South Carolina. The Shamcocks are allowing about 21 3-pointers per game, more than the national average, so the Hawkeyes could trade two for three.
And, unsurprisingly, Iowa State will see a positive regression in shooting after missing all of its college vs. college games.
But that means Iowa State is far more vulnerable to shooting dispersion, and a cold snap could devastate the Hawkeyes.
Meanwhile, South Carolina should be able to produce a consistent interior offense through low block buckets and second chance points. Shamcock should generate consistent paint opportunities and consistently deliver on her 60% clip.
If the Hawkeyes hit 45% from 3 on 25 attempts, I have to tip my cap and move on. But I’m going to bet on it and run with a team that has dominated in the paint in all 36 of its wins this year.
This is also up-tempo and should get a high score. Additional possessions always help favorites.
Take South Carolina and give them points.
