The No. 11 seed dominated the No. 6 seed 3-0 on the first day of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, setting up three interesting 3-11 matchups on Saturday.
We’ll highlight two of them here for your best bet heading into Saturday’s Round of 32 action.
Midwest Region: (3) Creighton vs. (11) Oregon
The NCAA Tournament is different from the regular season and conference tournaments.
Some head coaches and their staffs struggle with short turnaround times and game planning against multiple opponents.
For example, Greg McDermott was a middling coach against the spread in the tournament. He is 9-9 against his final record since taking over at Creighton in 2010.
Meanwhile, Oregon’s Dana Altman is a March killer. The Ducks head coach has an impressive 16-6-1 record against the spread in the tournament and a deadly 10-3 ATS for a seeded underdog.
On Saturday, Oregon State has the best player on the floor in N’Faly Dante. His heater continued for the Ducks, opening the season with 23 points, six rebounds, two steals, and two rejections in a big win over South Carolina.
His length and athleticism create problems on both ends of the floor, and he has a chance to get Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner into foul trouble, which could turn the game on its head.
The Blue Jays’ “Calk Drop” defense will require the 7-foot-1-inch center to stay out of foul trouble, so that’s something to watch from a live betting perspective.
Beyond Dante, Oregon State has had a top-30 offense since March 1, according to Bart Torbic.
They’ve carved up teams inside the arc, but they’ve had some bad luck from deep, so there’s still room for growth. Oregon State is shooting just 26.4 percent from three-point range this month.
Oregon State enters as one of the best teams in the Pac-12 when playing against highly rated teams.
Creighton, on the other hand, plays well against lower-ranked opponents, but struggles a bit against higher-quality opponents.
The Blue Jays were also below average on the natural floor, going just 2-3 against the spread, while Oregon State posted a 5-3 ATS record in those spots.
recommendation: Oregon +5.5.
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East: (3) Illinois vs. (11) Duquesne
Matchups in March often involve teams imposing their preferred pace. Illinois just dropped 85 points to Morehead State in a 16-point win on Thursday, beating a team that likes to play slow.
Morehead State produced more offensively in the loss than in Duquesne’s opening win. The Dukes, who had a perfect game against BYU, limited the Cougars’ possession in one of the biggest upsets of the first round.
Even if Duquesne can slow down a little, I believe they will be rock bottom offensively.
The Dukes rank outside the top 200 in shooting, shooting efficiency and defensive rebounding percentage. The key will be shooting from long distances, as the offense cannot be developed efficiently in the half court.
For the season, they shot 34 percent from long range, but against BYU they went 7-of-18 and won the turnover battle. A similar performance will be required against Illinois, but I’m not bullish on that happening.
The Illini, who enter with a top-20 offensive rebounding percentage, should eat up Duquesne offensively. And they will do everything in their power to turn this into a track and field competition.
Morehead State tried to slow the pace of the game, but couldn’t protect Illinois from transition in the second half (14 fast break points), and that’s when the Eagles’ ceiling collapsed.
The Fighting Illini led the Big Ten in kill shots this season with 23. In other words, when it rains, it pours in the face of Brad Underwood’s up-tempo offense.
Terrence Shannon Jr. vs. Jimmy Clark is the matchup to watch, but I’m betting on Illinois’ overall quality on offense on this day.
recommendation: Illinois – 9.5.
