It took a while to fully click into gear, but baseball’s superteams are now firing on all cylinders offensively.
Looking for their sixth straight win and 12th win in their past 14 games, the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Miami Marlins on Tuesday night in the second of a three-game series.
Marlins vs. Dodgers odds
| team | money line | run line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| marlins | +240 | +1.5(+120) | o7.5 (-105) |
| dodgers | -298 | -1.5 (-142) | u7.5 (-115) |
Marlins vs. Dodgers predictions
Over the past two weeks, the Dodgers have posted a wRC+ of 155, averaging 6.35 points per game.
Their BB/K rate was 0.73, an almost unheard of number even in our two-week sample, and they hard-hit 35.9% of their balls during that span.
Overall this season, he ranks 1st in xSLG rating at .473 and 1st in xwOBA at .363.
Mookie Betts (+150, BetMGM) and Shohei Ohtani (+400) are the frontrunners in the NL MVP race, and the rest of the lineup is as strong as expected.
Edward Cabrera, the Marlins’ starting pitcher Tuesday, should be on track to improve going forward.
His ERA is 6.06 despite an xERA of 3.50 and xFIP of 2.60.
He stopped only 57.1% of 57.3% of baserunners and saw hitters hit an unsustainably high BABIP of .395. He owns a pitching +101.
Cabrera has yet to face an offense that ranks higher than 14th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers.
So while his fundamental performance suggests that improvement is on the horizon, it’s also important to consider that he’s been beaten by softer-than-average opponents in the past.
The Dodgers rank first in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers by a wide margin of 138 points. The Padres’ next closest rating is 123 points.
It also doesn’t help Cabrera that he’s getting help from a Marlins side that is terrible defensively. The Marlins have the 28th worst rating (-20) in defense and points allowed.
Cabrera will prove to be an above-average starter this season.
As such, his earned run line is set at 2.5 at the same odds either way, giving him some respect from the market.
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However, given the state of the Marlins’ bullpen, this would be a good time to fade Cabrera out in that particular market, as Cabrera will have a long lead in this spot.
If Cabrera can pitch six innings without allowing three earned runs to the Dodgers, we’ll just tip the cap on him.
