This summer, one of the key choices facing Matthew Dersch is, well, not exactly a choice in the usual sense. It’s a bit more complicated, if that makes sense.
Sure, Balzar could potentially play in either position during the season as needed. But that’s not really the crux of the matter.
The real issue here is that the Islanders are in a bit of a bind regarding how they utilize Balzal.
This decision is pivotal in determining whether they believe they have the depth to trade for a center or if they need to find one themselves.
If Dersch’s ideal scenario is to keep Balzal on the right wing alongside Beauvat, it’s worth considering where each player thrives. The advanced stats and the eye test suggest that both perform best when placed correctly. The Islanders definitely need someone capable of fitting into their bottom six centers while contributing to the second line.
After they let Brock Nelson go at the trade deadline, Jean Gabriel Pagoe stepped in but didn’t seem to find his footing in that 2C position. It felt a bit off, and by then, the Islanders were, frankly, scrambling, with many players operating at less than their ideal levels.
But looking at Pagoe’s pre-deadline stats, he was fairly solid, posting a goal percentage of 56.01 and an expected target percentage of 55.76. However, after the deadline, his numbers dropped drastically. The expected target rate fell to 50.15, and his Corsi percentage hit 46.29, which is significant.
As we look deeper down the roster, similar patterns emerge with players like Casey Cizikas and Kyle McLean. Assuming Richie, now 20, starts next season in the NHL instead of the AHL, that could be an interesting shift. There’s an expectation for him to slot into the fourth line.
Cizikas had a bit of a resurgence after moving to 3C last season, but much of that can be attributed to playing in the center role rather than any magic formula. It’s a tough spot for the Islanders, who really can’t afford to fall back into old habits.
Regardless if Barzal plays center or not, one of these three—Cizikas, Richie, or McLean—will likely need to adjust their position given the current situation.
Last season, Cizikas illustrated the associated risks of these adjustments.
It’s a bit of a cliché, but moving a center to the wing is often easier than the other way around. Yet the Islanders find themselves in a peculiar situation where they have too many centers and not enough slots for them to thrive in.
One option might be trading Pagoe, whose name surfaces in trade talks fairly often. With a one-year deal left worth $5 million and a limited no-trade clause, he demonstrated last season that he remains valuable in the right role.
Dersch has appeared hesitant to shake things up too much in his first summer at the helm, but there’s definitely pressure for him to reconsider as he evaluates Pagoe’s future amidst a possible trade deadline move.
Still, I’m not sure the Islanders feel entirely comfortable relying on Cizikas, Ritchie, or MacLean to start the season in the second line.
If Pagoe stays, it suggests a bit of confidence in separating Horvat and Barzal at the start of the season, even if they’ve found success together in the past.
It’s reasonable to think that an extra $5 million could enable them to address these roster issues effectively come July 1st.
