Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.)’s plan for revenge against the Republicans who ousted him is off to a rough start.
Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Louisiana/South Carolina) easily beat two other candidates in the primary on Tuesday night, including one backed by a group linked to McCarthy, to win a majority in her district and avoid a runoff. Mace was considered the front-runner in the race and had the backing of former President Trump and current Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana).
Her victory was a setback for McCarthy and raised questions about his political influence within the Republican Party.
“In sports terms, Kevin McCarthy is currently 0-1, but he’s going to have to do impressively in the next few elections he takes part in to gauge whether he’ll continue to have an impact on D.C. politics,” said Dave Wilson, a Republican strategist in South Carolina.
Conservative backlash against McCarthy raged for months after the fiercely contested 15-vote election for speaker, finally coming to the surface in October when Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) introduced a motion to remove McCarthy from his position.
The turning point came when McCarthy opted to introduce a “clean” continuing resolution that would fund the government with Democratic votes, without any consideration of key Republican priorities.
Mace was one of just eight Republicans who voted in last year’s historic firing of McCarthy, along with some of the most conservative members of Congress, including Gaetz and Reps. Eli Klain (R-Ariz.) and Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.).
Another member of the group, Rosendale and former Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.), have chosen not to seek reelection to another term, but the remaining six are all running.
But Mace was in a category of her own among the eight, being much more moderate than the other defectors: she opposed McCarthy, accusing him of breaking promises the then-speaker had made to her.
As McCarthy publicly clashed with Republicans who had criticized him, his allies set their sights on identifying and backing primary challengers to the so-called Gaetz Eight, and McCarthy himself has not ruled out backing a challenger to the incumbent.
his Political Action CommitteeMajority Committee PAC donated $10,000 to Mace’s rival, Katherine Templeton, when she was seeking reelection for her South Carolina seat. According to Federal Election Commission filings:Another group with ties to McCarthy, the Alliance for American Prosperity, has reportedly spent $2.1 million against Mace.
But the South Carolina congresswoman handily defeated Templeton in Tuesday night’s primary, moving her one step closer to a third term and dealing a blow to McCarthy’s attempt at revenge.
But Palmetto State-based Republican strategist Chip Felkel was skeptical of McCarthy’s influence, given his involvement in the race. Mace, a former Trump critic, has endorsed Trump this time and won the primary with his help.
“That’s old news,” Voelkel said of the impeachment vote. “McCarthy is gone. He’s out of the picture. A lot of Trump supporters see McCarthy as part of the problem, part of the establishment, and I don’t think it’s a big leap for them.”
Meanwhile, Wilson said that while Trump’s support doesn’t hurt in states like South Carolina, its effect varies from state to state.
“Did last night’s election help? The post-election evidence shows it had no adverse effect. So if you’re looking at the political world as Trump versus McCarthy, Trump is 1, McCarthy is 0. Let’s see how the next election goes,” Wilson said.
Gaetz, Klain and House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good (R-Va.) also will face intraparty competition in primaries later this year.
Goode is facing off against Republican Sen. John McGuire of Virginia, who is backed by Trump, putting Trump and McCarthy on the same side in this case.
Goode initially supported Florida Governor Ron DeSantis for the Republican presidential nomination, drawing the ire of the former president. After DeSantis dropped out of the race, Goode quickly moved to endorse Trump, but Trump argued that his endorsement came “too late” and instead focused his efforts on Maguire.
MC PAC also Donated $10,000 to McGuire.Good’s primary may give McCarthy a better chance of winning than Mace’s.
In Arizona, Klain is also running for re-election with Trump’s endorsement. Approval.
In Florida, Trump Approvalwill face off against former Naval aviator Aaron Dimock in the August primary. approved By McCarthy.
While the primary may not be an outright referendum on the political strength of either Trump or McCarthy, experts say the outcome could be an important signal of the impact of support for the former president, who was convicted last month in a historic Manhattan criminal trial, and could also signal the staying power of the “Gaetz Eight” now that McCarthy has left the House.
Republican strategist Brian Sejczyk said Mace has Trump’s backing and significant resources to get his message out to voters, complicating assessments of McCarthy’s influence in the race.
Despite donations from McCarthy’s group, Mace significantly outraised his opponents in the primary. To More than $2.2 million compared to about $660,000 for Templeton.
“It’s hard to overinterpret Mace’s victory and see it as emblematic of McCarthy’s failure,” he said. “It’s too early to assess McCarthy’s impact at this point.”
Good’s race in Virginia is just a week away, and he’s trying to avoid becoming the first incumbent to lose a primary in the 2024 election cycle.
“It’s very difficult to compare the two races because the difference between Mace and Goode isn’t about McCarthy, it’s about support for Trump,” said Brian Kerwin, a Virginia-based Republican strategist.
Kirwin said McCarthy’s firing was “not as critical or deal-breaking as people think.”
Sejczyk said primaries vary by district, but McCarthy may have a better chance of beating an incumbent who hasn’t had a full primary fight before. He noted that Good will be running in a traditional primary for the first time for the Republican nomination, rather than a convention, which he won in 2020 and 2022.
A poll sponsored by the Virginia Faith and Liberty Coalition released this month Indicated McGuire led Good by 10 points, with 41% approving and 31% disapproving, but 30% of respondents were undecided.
Sejczyk said incumbents who aren’t facing serious challenges may have a less developed fundraising base, which could work to McCarthy and his allies’ advantage.
“The reality is, you don’t want to be at odds with the McCarthy campaign and their allies. There’s no guarantee you’ll lose, but it’s certainly not an ideal situation for anyone,” Sejczyk said.
