As you may have noticed, NFL scoring has dropped significantly this year. There are many theories as to why, but ESPN's chief draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. has a bold proposal to address the issue.
Kiper said Cover 2 or 2-high coverage should be banned because it leads to lower scoring.
“The NFL is ruined by those two high safeties,” Kiper said. said On get up“Think about a quarterback throwing the ball across the field. [Hall of Fame QB Terry] Bradshaw is [receiver John] Stallworth and [Lynn] Swan, Roger Staubach. Those are the guys I want to bring back.
“The five-yard rule for cornerbacks was right. The Mel Blount rule. Now, With Hearts in the push“You have to be one more yard back. So don't tell me you can't move the safeties closer to the line of scrimmage.”
“That has to change. You can warn a safety, 'You're dropping back too much,' but the competition committee needs to know who knows what depth they're at. But they're dropping back too far. The NFL is ruined by these two high safeties.”
Now, I know what you’re all thinking. Is Cover 2 leading to lower scoring? Cover 2 has been a common defensive alignment since at least the late 90s. Why is it only now leading to lower scoring?
That's exactly what I think. It makes absolutely no sense.
Still, scoring is down. The league average is 43 points per game so far, down significantly from an all-time high of 49.6 points in 2019. Additionally, rushing attempts are up 3 percent from last year, and many of the passes are short-to-mid-range and not as varied as downfield attempts.
What is the reason for this?
Are NFL defenders playing Cover 2 better than they used to? Yes, they certainly are. But it's unlikely they've made enough phenomenal improvements in running Cover 2 to drop the average score by six points.
In reality, the answer is probably multiple factors.
One thing is for sure: quarterback play in the NFL is extremely poor. Outside of the usual suspects like Mahomes, Rodgers, and maybe a few other top-five quarterbacks, the quality of quarterback play in the league right now is abysmal.
Additionally, or at the same time, offseason practice time has been cut down to almost nothing. This means that most NFL quarterbacks and receivers/tight ends will go into the season without ever finding a rhythm with each other, unless they're veterans who've been playing together for a long time. Of course, Pat Mahomes and Travis Kelce can pick up where they left off after six years of playing together.
But look at the lack of communication and difficulties between Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Wilson in their first year playing together. That's a big difference.
The thing is, most quarterback-receiver pairings in the NFL don't develop true chemistry until Week 6 or Week 7.
Would that lead to more points? Sure, but the average points per game would go down. Either way, there are likely a number of reasons why the points have gone down, but the idea that it's because a defensive formation that's been in the league for over 30 years has suddenly become dominant is absurd.
