As Donald Trump pummels his Republican rivals in Iowa, it's worth asking why the repeatedly indicted, disgusting and incompetent former president is doing so well within the Republican Party.
After the 2016 election, I wrote: book chapter I explore his first election appeal, which is based on three elements of conservatism: a dislike of government, an aversion to change, an aversion to difference, and a successful businessman (as much as he claimed). He argued that this was caused by the combination of the view that the government was not a member of the public, and the backlash from billionaires. ) could fix the economy.
A lot has happened since then, most of which would have hurt the former president even among Republicans. But that's not the case.
Why not?
In my view, three factors collectively explain much of his continued appeal: partisanship, adherence to pre-existing beliefs, and (false) authenticity.
Partisanship is a powerful drug, a central identity that organizes our thoughts and feelings in the political realm.
Trump was widely disliked by Republicans until it became clear that he was the true candidate for the party's nomination.
In May 2015, before Trump officially announced his candidacy, an ABC/Washington Post poll found that only 16% of Republicans had a favorable opinion of the eventual nominee. , 65% of respondents expressed a negative opinion of Trump.
However, once he became a viable candidate, the Republican approval rating went to 180. The ABC/Washington Post poll found that favorable approval among Republicans jumped from 16 percent to 57 percent, while unfavorable support fell from 65 percent to 40 percent.
Republicans had no use for Trump when he was a burlesque showman and wannabe politician. But once he became a potential standard bearer, GOPers began a love affair with the orange-haired narcissist.
When Republican Chairman Reince Priebus nominated him as the party's nominee, Trump had an approval rating of 65% and a disapproval rating of 34%.
In other words, Republicans had more favorable views of Trump after learning that he might represent their major political identity.
After Trump became president, his popularity among Republicans rose again, with an 83% favorable rating and a 12% unfavorable rating.
In February 2021, when he lost the White House and tried to incite an insurrection, the former president's average favorability rating among Republicans was about the same, 81% to 17%.
And today, after facing criminal charges and losing a civil lawsuit, and with Republicans campaigning against him, his approval rating among his own party stands at 78% to 19%. It has become almost unbearable.
This brings us to the second factor I highlighted: the persistence of pre-existing beliefs. People don't change their minds easily, especially when it comes to issues related to their identity.
After reviewing a wide range of evidence, cognitive scientist Hugo Mercier concludes that “messages that conflict with our prior beliefs are overwhelmingly likely to be ignored.”
Witness the Republican reaction to Richard Nixon.
Conservative Sen. Barry Goldwater (R-Ariz.) comes off a summer of Senate Watergate hearings that featured blockbuster testimony from former White House Counsel John Dean and a losing tape case at the Supreme Court. A delegation of Republican Congressional leaders was assembled. ) traveled down Pennsylvania Avenue, announcing that if Nixon remained in office, he would impeach and convict him.
Even as Mr. Goldwater and others were planning a presidential visit, only 31% of Republican voters said Mr. Nixon should be impeached, and 59% said he should not be impeached. It was certainly difficult to change Republican voters' minds about Nixon.
Support for Donald Trump was built on partisanship and sustained by a combination of partisanship and people's unwillingness to change their minds.
Trump also benefited from the false sense of credibility he gained from appearing to suffer for his beliefs as he weathered the incredible storms he faced.
Mr. Trump was willing to say what his supporters believed, while other politicians avoided it. Mr. Trump's willingness to withstand accusations, investigations, and prosecutions from the “establishment” has made him seen as a true champion of those who feel unrepresented.
People judged to be morally authentic appear to be driven by intrinsic motivation rather than extrinsic rewards. Mr. Trump's willingness to suffer so much appears to indicate that he is driven not by any potential rewards, but by true beliefs and a genuine commitment to the viewpoints of his constituents. Ta.
In the psychology of his supporters, his accusations and other attacks against him were a sign of courage and an expression of his willingness to sacrifice for common values.
Donald Trump is now a Republican.
Melman is president of the Melman Group, which has helped elect 30 U.S. senators, 12 governors and dozens of members of the House of Representatives. Mr. Mellman served as a pollster for the Senate Democratic leadership for more than 20 years, is president of the American Association of Political Consultants, a member of that association's Hall of Fame, and is chairman of the Israel Democratic Majority Party.
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