ARLINGTON, Texas — The last time the Mets tried their hand at using a top prospect, they included pitcher J.T. Ginn during 2022 spring training to acquire Chris Bassitt from the Athletics.
The Mets last attempted a trade at the trade deadline on July 30, 2021, when they acquired Jaybee Baez and Trevor Williams from the Cubs in exchange for center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, who, like Ginn, was ranked as the team’s fifth-best prospect by MLB.com at the time of the trade.
Despite making several smaller trades at the 2022 trade deadline, the championship-favorite Mets are already committed to protecting their best players, only moving lower-tier prospects — David Robertson, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander for top prospects last July — and with the additions coming in Sunday night’s draft, the Mets have essentially been in build-up mode for two years.
This has largely put the Mets’ system on an upward trajectory, with one scout noting, “I wouldn’t say we’re seeing a wave of pitchers at all levels, but we’re pretty close.”
So the Mets have the security to strengthen their major league roster. So how far will David Stearns go in his first year in the position? The Mets were in the playoff zone at the time of the suspension, but the race for the National League Wild Card is still in a close race. So far, Stearns has tried to keep the system protected while not stalling future payroll. But he also claims that the team is expected to make the playoffs this year.
Stearns used Steve Cohen’s money to acquire Harrison Bader, Sean Manaea and Luis Severino on valuable short-term deals and, more recently, assumed the contract (and tax) associated with the acquisition of Phil Mutton to bolster the relief corps where it was most needed.
Stearns knows how quickly things can change. An opposing executive said Stearns was happy to listen to nearly the entire Mets relief corps, including then-best pitcher Reid Garrett, when the team was struggling not long ago. And it doesn’t take a record-keeper to see that the Mets were four games up in first place when they acquired Baez, but then went 22-37 and were eliminated from the playoffs entirely.
That would be a scary scenario for Stearns: Finding out that the surge of the past six weeks was an aberration in a year in which he was giving up future chips to try to protect those items.
This suggests that Stearns will be cautious, especially since he knows the Phillies are a team that can’t catch up in the National League East. So the Mets’ inclusion could peak as hosting a best-of-three Wild Card series. Still, it’s a lot of value for a team that has only made the playoffs three times in the past 17 seasons. But it’s not a cry to go all out. Rather, it puts the Mets in the same group as many teams. That’s why one of the most commonly heard phrases this July has been that the organization is preparing to buy or sell. And now, more than ever, many have suggested that the buy and sell threads could be in the cards.
I think that’s exactly where the Mets are — even if they suffer a big losing streak over the next 10 days, they could still play the future game entirely by moving Bader, Manaea and Severino and releasing Pete Alonso — but their NL best record since June 2nd makes that a hard sell, literally.
The Mets plan to have a six-man rotation when Kodai Senga returns, but there are internal questions about how good the right-hander will be in 2023. But can the Mets, for example, be confident that Senga, Manaea, Severino, Christian Scott, Tyler Megill, David Peterson and Jose Butt provide enough depth, with Brandon Sproat added as extra insurance, to see if a championship contender in need of rotation reinforcements will play in place of Jose Quintana? Or could the promotion of Scott, Sproat and others give the Mets the luxury of moving Megill or Peterson?
Another sale question concerns Brett Batty. Has the emergence of Mark Vientos and the return of Ronny Mauricio in 2025 made him unnecessary? Batty’s resume as a promising prospect and the sports world’s overall hunger for hitters means the Mets could mount a substantial return despite Batty’s struggles in the major leagues.
But the Mets have Batty as their Triple-A second baseman and may not be ready to move him just yet in a year where the prospects at the position aren’t as good as the pitching staff due to continued injuries to Mauricio, Drew Gilbert, Jacob Reimer, Marco Vargas and Jett Williams, as well as the lack of significant development from their final two first-round picks, Kevin Parada and Collin Hack, and Luis Ángel Acuña (with Scherzer back in the mix).
Stearns’ history in Milwaukee has been about beefing up the relief corps as the season progresses. Perhaps that will come with Butt and Dedniel Nunez taking on increased responsibilities. But any serious championship contender would add another pitcher or two, at the very least a corner of the outfield, and talent evaluators say the Mets have the tools to do that.
Over the next two-plus weeks, Stearns will show just how motivated the Mets are on this path.
