The Atlanta Braves, who didn’t lose a single star from their 104-win team, are likely to win their seventh straight National League East title in 2024.
However, the Phillies have eliminated them in back-to-back playoff games and should continue to be a thorn in their side.
Even though Atlanta and Philadelphia play in the same district, oddsmakers have them ranked as the second and third favorites to win this year’s National League pennant.
One reason the price is low is that oddsmakers and most prediction systems don’t believe in the upside for the rest of the division.
2024 National League East odds, predictions
| team | 2023 record | O/U | division odds | Pecota projection | fan graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 104-58 | 101.5 | -280 | 100.9 | 97-65 |
| phillies | 90-72 | 90.5 | +300 | 84.8 | 85-77 |
| Marlins | 84-78 | 78.5 | +2500 | 82.7 | 80-82 |
| mets | 75-87 | 82.5 | +1000 | 79.7 | 80-82 |
| nationals | 71-91 | 66.5 | +12500 | 58.2 | 66-96 |
2024 National League East predictions
atlanta braves
The Braves are projected to sweep the rest of the National League East this season, with 11 wins over the Phillies in total stakes.
FanGraphs and PECOTA project 12 and 16 more wins, respectively.
Their key offseason acquisitions came in the form of pitchers Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez, and outfielder Jared Kelenic.
Sale and Kelenic are both buys with a lot of upside, but even if they don’t work out, the Braves’ rotation and lineup will remain stacked.
It may not be fair to expect the Braves lineup to match last season’s historic 125 wRC+, but there’s no reason to see a noticeable decline. FanGraphs projects Atlanta will average a league-leading 5.35 points per game with him, and he is expected to score 0.23 points more than the Dodgers.
Here is the projected lineup for the Braves: The player’s age on opening day is in parentheses.
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (26)
- Ozzie Albies (27)
- Austin Riley (27)
- Matt Olson (30)
- Marcell Ozuna (33)
- Michael Harris II (23)
- Sean Murphy (29)
- Jared Kelenic (24)
- Orlando Arcia (29)
The Braves have three of the top 11 favorites to win the National League MVP, including Acuña, who is the clear favorite to win the title at +550. They feature a roster full of players in their true prime, which should combine to produce results similar to last season.
Spencer Strider and Max Fried headline the rotation, which is expected to have a fairly wide range of results, but should maintain clear strengths. Those two are promising in the National League’s Cy Young lineup, but the cumulative performance of Charlie Morton, Sale, and either Bryce Elder or Lopez is a little harder to predict.
philadelphia phillies
The Phillies also look like legitimate World Series favorites again despite a relatively quiet offseason.
They re-signed Aaron Nola to a seven-year, $172 million contract. He and Zack Wheeler will lead a quality rotation, joined by Ranger Suarez, Christopher Sanchez and Taijuan Walker.
Led by Bryce Harper and Trea Turner, the Phillies have one of the most potent offensive lines in baseball, and they haven’t lost a single key position player in the recent playoffs.
Although they lost Craig Kimbrel in free agency, they are still expected to have a very effective bullpen.
new york mets
The Mets would like to make a comeback by revamping their starting rotation, but in order to secure the talent to compete in this division, it is certain that several elements are needed to break the advantageous situation.
Rookies Sean Manaea, Adrian Hauser and Luis Severino should join Kodai Chiga and Jose Quintana to complete the rotation.
Severino achieved an xFIP of 4.83 last season, but is clearly a bit of a project at this point. Manaea’s ratings aren’t very high, and it’s hard to imagine him exceeding last season’s 4.44 ERA. Quintana posted a 4.58 xERA last season at age 35 with well below average velocity.
Chiga should be a legitimate ace this season, even though he will be out for a while with shoulder strain, but I don’t like the turnaround of the rest of the unit.
However, the batting line certainly looks solid and could be a quietly frustrating unit for opposing pitchers, especially if Francisco Alvarez can continue to be disciplined at the plate as he did late last season.
The Mets have a respectable total stake of 82.5 wins, and I view them as a slightly better team than the Marlins.
Bear in mind that if they remain loosely in the race around July, they are likely to make aggressive moves to get better, and that last year’s sell-off was an outlier for this management. Please keep it.
miami marlins
Miami will look to continue last year’s very encouraging campaign, but will be forced to do so without Sandy Alcantara, who is out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Even without Alcantara, starting pitching is a clear strength on the Marlins’ roster. Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, and Yuri Perez should form a strong starting rotation.
The question for Miami will revolve around what kind of production they manage at the plate.
We should have high hopes for Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Luis Arraez, but with the loss of Jorge Soler, the rest of the group looks unconvincing.
washington nationals
Oddsmakers and predictive models alike don’t expect the Nationals to build on last season’s impressive performance. Their betting total is him at 66.5, which is five wins worse than last year, and both PECOTA and FanGraphs still project him to fall below that total.
High-level prospects like Dylan Cruz, Cade Cavalli, and Jackson Rutledge should bring excitement to Nats fans at some point this season, but the reason this team is nothing more than bottom feeders Not so much.
National League East predictions
It should be a tough battle for the Mets, Marlins and Nationals in the division, as the Braves and Phillies are in a good position to build on last year’s great seasons.
I’m not averse to betting on the Phillies to win the World Series at +1500, but I don’t believe we’ll ever see a better number, so betting on the Braves at +550 is my favorite play right now. That’s what I think.
It’s hard to see the Braves’ elite players having disappointing seasons, so barring the extreme outcome of injury luck, oddsmakers have them ranked second or even first in power. I love the possibility of going into the postseason.
In that case, prices like +550 go out the window.
Learn everything you need to know about MLB betting
So despite the fact that the Braves have hit the postseason wall against the Phillies the past two years, I actually believe it’s a good bet to back the Braves now to win the World Series. .
Atlanta is in a good position to solidify its staff before the deadline if needed, but most importantly, all of its elite members are already in place.
I like Kelenic’s buy-low move, and the rest of the lineup is ready to build on last year’s production.
