Mets playoff odds, predictions, best bets

Going into Thursday at 25-25, it’s hard not to disappoint the Mets.

Steve Cohen has compiled one of the most expensive, star-studded rosters in MLB, and the Mets have a .500 batting average to prove it.

Well, I have bad news. I think the situation could get much worse.

In this space, I recently wrote about Pete Alonso’s MVP potential.

With such a ridiculous number (+1300), I still believe he has value in the NL MVP market, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he believes in the team (Bryce said a few years ago). Harper won, but the Phillies missed the playoffs) ).

The Mets batted .500 after 50 games, but were down 21 points and were 23-27 against Pythagoras.

Add that to an 11-7 record with just one point behind, and the Mets will be in even more trouble.

Well, with the Mets looking to embark on the hardest six-week period of their 2023 schedule, those losses could come sooner or later.

They’ll be visiting the Rockies for the weekend, but seven of their next 13 series will be against the current playoff team.

The remaining six sets are against the hard-hitting Blue Jays, the featured Cardinals, the underrated Padres, the nasty Giants and rival Phillies (twice).

The next time the Mets face a truly “bad” team will be (at least according to my betting power rating) in mid-July when they host the White Sox.

As a result, the Mets have the toughest remaining schedule in the NL East in terms of winning percentage (.509), and the most challenging matchup is just around the corner.

The Mets pitchers are also worried.

Rotation is old, brittle and lacks depth.

Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander
Getty Images

Kodai Senga is regressing fast, Tyler Megil’s batting profile is a mess, Carlos Carrasco is a gas can, and I don’t trust David Peterson or Joey Lucchesi at all.

Triple-A Syracuse has no solid pitching prospects, other than perhaps Jose Bhutto, whose most recent Mets appearance came out of the bullpen on May 3.

No help seems to be coming.

The Mets have been ranked second-lowest in relief hopes FIP (5.09) over the past two weeks, and their bullpen has also struggled in recent weeks.

It’s hard to trust this unit without Edwin Diaz, who is still 60 days old.

Especially if either Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer were injured during this grueling stretch, the wheels could fall off this object.

So what does this ultimately mean?

That means the time to sell the Mets is now.

Bet on baseball?

Not only do I want to undermine them game by game during this period, but it is likely that their overall value in the futures market will decline once things settle down (i.e. by sector, Pennants, World Series odds could skyrocket).

Finding an exact way to fade the Mets out in the futures market is tricky. The main reason is that at -500 you can’t bet the Braves will win the NL East.

Nevertheless, you can get enough plus-money prices to miss the playoffs with the Mets.

The highest price for that stake in the current market was (+150). We believe these odds will drop sharply over the next few weeks, making them excellent value bets.

Ironically, the Mets market may be at its peak, at least in the short term.

Keep that in mind when handicapping your team to move forward.

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