The Mets just lost to the Dodgers, the franchise Steve Cohen nearly bought more than a decade ago and the organization he most wanted to emulate since buying the Mets.
The key to the Mets' near-term future, then, is how closely Cohen and David Stearns believe the club is following the Dodgers' trajectory. Is advancing to Game 6 of the NLCS a sign that they have significantly closed the gap on the perennial championship contenders? If so, should this be the same kind of hard-working offseason the Dodgers had last offseason when they acquired a millionaire worth over $1 billion?
Or do they see 2024 as just a positive step in OMG/Grimace's lucky year and think the gap is still too big to really push everything forward? As one National League executive pointed out, the Dodgers basically have a strong pitching staff, but they are also a “pitching machine'' that will continue to provide weapons to help them advance to the World Series.
The Mets are trying to recreate that, but it's taken years and they're not there yet.
If so, this would be the second consecutive offseason prudent move designed to avoid clogging up future payroll, roster space or losing potential talent in a trade, while still keeping the Mets from making the playoffs. Does it have to be of sufficient quality to keep the chances of it high?
The Dodgers' $1 billion-plus offseason was built primarily around trades and extensions for Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and big-name players Tyler Glasnow and Teoscar Hernandez, both of whom had injury concerns.
Mets version? What about Juan Soto in mega contract mode for Ohtani, Corbin Burnes as a big starter/Yamamoto in free agency, a trade and contract extension for injury-prone big man Garrett Crochet, and Tanner Scott for Hernandez? I can do it if I have the money, so I'll split it up.
Even though there is still a big gap between the Mets and Dodgers, one could still argue that now is the right time to make this spending. It expands the Mets' chances of winning the National League East for the next few years, actually expanding their chances of making the playoffs every year, and with an aging Justin Verlander and an aging Justin Verlander This is because it provides protection during the prime years for continued growth. Max Scherzer wasn't like that.
By the way, Scherzer and Verlander are both free agents…OK, just kidding.
However, Scherzer and Verlander are now completely off the Mets' books. Still, a Dodgeless-like splurge puts Cohen far above the luxury tax threshold and once again nets him $300 million, even though the 11 free agents on his postseason roster could disappear. Ta.
Does Cohen want to do that? He showed that the baseball team is like his art collection. He is willing to spend what it takes to get what he wants. But he admired Stearns and by all accounts listened to the president of baseball operations' advice. Of course, no one should admit that Stearns wants to do this on the cheap.
He was hired by the Mets, as was Andrew Friedman of the Dodgers. This is a guy who took the worst of Tampa Bay/Milwaukee and now can combine it with a top-of-the-line buy. Even in a relatively frugal offseason, the Mets offered Yamamoto the same bid as the Dodgers: $325 million, meaning an additional $50.6 million in posting fees. I want you to remember.
And I can't stop thinking about what Brandon Nimmo said to me when the Mets clinched a postseason berth in Atlanta. He revealed that he had told Stearns that he was a “great architect.”
“That means he's done a good job of putting the right people in the right places,” Nimmo said. “It's very important to Steve and Alex [Cohen] I want to join this team and organization. They don't want to be any other team in New York anymore. They want to be respected more than that. ”
The best way to avoid becoming the Yankees' stepbrother would have been to beat them in the World Series and steal Soto. Half of that is still possible. And you should try Steve Cohen.
I think Soto loves being a Yankee and will continue to be one, all things being equal (or close). But how close? Aaron Judge has strong ties to the Yankees and agreed to a deal before the Giants and Padres had even seriously considered how far he could go. I suspect this Scott Boras client will find out just how far Cohen will go.
Consider again Yamamoto's $375 million. Cohen did his best to recruit pitchers despite his frequent injuries, but he was also an enigma in MLB. All because he was only 25 years old.
Soto turns 26 on Friday and will celebrate in Game 1 of the World Series. There is no mystery to him. He showed he can play in New York and even in October. He's a culture changer for the offense, as you can see by the tenacity with which he approaches every at-bat. He wants to be historically great, so I don't think he's going to let money get him out of shape. He has a high baseball IQ.
For that reason, the Yankees want to keep him. After all, every team would want him, and many would make a bid for him. However, I believe that Hal Steinbrenner is seriously considering taking the Yankees off his $300 million+ annual salary, so perhaps in a mano-a-mano bidding war with Uncle Stevie, “Uncle” I would say But will Mr. Cohen give it his all? That's what you should do.
In any case, there are some other important issues.
–What should we do with Pete Alonso? Stearns was hired to some degree to prioritize logic over emotion. No matter how much fans love Alonso, no matter how big a home run he hits against the Brewers, the next six years of Alonso's life will likely be less durable and less productive than the six years he just spent. He knows it's almost certain. He is 30 years old and a clumsy athlete. There's a fair price to be paid for his power, durability, and icon status. But it's far less than what he's asking for, having rejected a seven-year, $158 million contract midway through the 2023 season.
The reality is that Mark Vientos had the season Alonso needed to put all the pressure on the Mets. And Vientos will either stay at No. 3 at near-minimum salary, move up to No. 1 in 2025 and allow Brett Batty/Ronnie Mauricio to compete for No. 3, or the next question will be asked. Would it be better to re-sign Alonso and get him first and keep Vientos at third (including DH) for the next few years, or keep Vientos first and sign Alex Bregman? Will he sign a third contract? Once the Dodgers season is over, could they bring in free agent Hernandez as an outfielder/DH and provide more of what Alonso does on a shorter contract?
–Who is Kodai Senga? Have Tyler Megill and David Peterson earned a guaranteed spot in the rotation in 2025? There's enough uncertainty there that the Mets need to add three starters.
Internally, is it causing pain to Paul Blackburn after his spinal cord injury? How close are Brandon Sproat and Nolan McLean, two of the starting prospects with the highest ceilings, to the majors? (Christian Scott, who underwent Tommy John surgery, will be out next year).
Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana and Luis Severino are all free agents. The Mets could try to reunite Manaea and Severino, among others, over a multi-year period. They should and probably will make both qualifying offers. But the Mets will have to reassure themselves, and free agent Jose Iglesias, that this hasn't just been a really good year.
Mr. Stearns ostensibly has inside information. He had Barnes in Milwaukee and had discussions with Barnes in Milwaukee regarding arbitration hearings. Therefore, he will feel inconclusive about whether or not to get back together. If not, Max Fried is an athletic starter who should be good enough to age well in 2024 unless left forearm neuritis becomes a long-term problem.
Crochet becomes very available. The Mets currently have a prospect to acquire him. His left arm is difficult to hit as he is in his second year of control. He also doesn't have a track record of staying healthy as a starting pitcher.
Are the Mets looking to get one-year deals like Manaea or Severino designed to help rebuild the value of pitchers? If so, Walker Buehler and Shane Bieber are appealing. Nathan Eovaldi will want two years, but I have a lot of confidence in him.
When it comes to reclamation projects, Jordan Montgomery just had a disaster in Arizona, and owner Ken Kendrick almost said he wanted him out of town. Will the Diamondbacks take on Jeff McNeil's $33.5 million over the next two years to pay off the $22.5 million owed in 2025? If I were the Mets, I'd try that.
— Free agency and injuries have left Edwin Diaz, Jose Butt (still eligible to start) and Reid Garrett as the only surefire players for the 25-year pen. Stearns showed he could improve the pen on the fly. But he should try Scott's luxury products. That would provide two things the Mets desperately need: caddy/insurance for Diaz and a capable left-handed reliever.
