It’s been a tough season for the Miami Hurricanes, a year after the program went 29-8 and reached its first ever Final Four.
Despite returning three starters and playing 52% of his minutes, the Hurricanes have struggled to replace 2023 ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong.
Miami is just 15-13 on the year and has lost its last six games.
Next up is a trip to Chapel Hill to face the 10th place Tar Heels (21-5), who sit atop the ACC with a conference record of 13-3.
North Carolina State comes into this game coming off a 54-44 road win over Virginia.
It was expected to be a low-scoring game due to Virginia’s slow offense, but that tends to carry over into the team’s next game after facing the Cavaliers.
miami analysis
There’s no question that the ACC’s prestige has allowed Miami coach Jim Larrañaga to attract better players than he did under George Mason, who led the Patriots to the Final Four in 2006.
As a result, Larrañaga modified his playing style when he landed in South Beach in 2011, opting for a more up-tempo brand of basketball.
The Hurricanes want to move the ball up and down the court in transition while utilizing their perimeter game in the half court.
Defense hasn’t been Miami’s strong suit ever since.
For example, last season, the Hurricanes ranked 99th in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency, but finished 6th in adjusted offense.
This season, the Hurricanes rank 135th in adjusted defense and 72nd in adjusted offense.
So it’s clear that Miami’s biggest drop-off this season was on the offensive side of the floor, further supporting the argument that Wong has suffered a significant loss this season.
According to TeamRankings, the Hurricanes are averaging 107 points per 100 possessions, compared to 112 points in 2023.
Given that this total against North Carolina is as high as 155 at one sportsbook, it’s questionable how much Miami can push this game above this number.
North Carolina analysis
The Tar Heels will no doubt be looking forward to playing an opponent like Miami, who is dedicated to playing a more modern style of basketball.
However, I think there will be an adjustment period due to having to play against such contrasting styles in consecutive games.
All it takes is a few empty possessions to put 155 points or more in real danger.
North Carolina returns two starters and 44% of its players from a season ago, but is actually much better defensively.
The Tar Heels ranked eighth in Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing 93.6 points per 100 possessions, down from 97.2 points (46th) in 2023.
North Carolina does a great job defending on the perimeter, ranking 18th in opponent 3-point percentage (29.9%).
In their first matchup against the Hurricanes on February 10th, Miami shot just 26.1% from the field.
The Hurricanes rank 32nd with 27 points per game from behind the perimeter, but that number drops to 24.8 (78th) on the road.
Therefore, I expect the Tar Heels to remain committed to stopping the Hurricanes from shooting around them.
Miami vs. North Carolina predictions
(7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
My first thought with this matchup was whether there was a clear correlation to the team’s next game totals after playing a tempo-challenged team like Virginia.
According to KillerSports.com. total The under is 170-157-2 (52%) in this spot. However, when adjusting the parameters to only include games with a total of 153.5 or higher, the under improves to 22-9-1 (71%).
I was also interested to see how the under performs after the North Carolina State game with a starting total of 153.5 points or more after being bet on the market.
According to us Action Lab DatabaseThe under was 66-41-1 (61.1%) at 19.88.
Do you want to bet on college basketball?
Given that my model predicts the total to be closer to 151.2 points, I confidently recommend a weak move in this market and a play below 155.
