We are always told that the house wins. It is said that you can never win when gambling. But what is not specified is that these maxims only apply in most situations, but not all.
Specifically, the casino floor has clean fixed odds for table games. The mathematical superiority of this house is indisputable and will surely prevail over time. However, in the case of sports betting, the calculations are limited and flimsy.
This gray area is even more pronounced in outcomes away from the playing field, such as the NFL draft or the MVP award. The market is very soft when it comes to human decisions, and I took advantage of that just 10 days ago. . Oddsmakers are vulnerable because their built-in hold rate does not outweigh the variance and unknowns.
You can now bet on whether your team will make it to the first 12-team College Football Playoff, which will be announced this Sunday.
Sure, this weekend's conference title game will have an impact on the field, but ultimately it will come down to human decisions.
There will be plenty of information to glean on Tuesday night as the 13-member committee releases its penultimate rankings following last weekend's upset. Basically, this is a guessing game. Unlike craps or roulette, the house has no advantage to the bettor at all. They don't know what the committee will say when it convenes. They literally have no more expertise than anyone else. And that's the potential beauty of taking advantage of this situation.
As of Monday afternoon, I strongly believe that Miami's DraftKings odds of +800 to make the playoffs and 300/1 to win the National Championship are completely out.
It's by no means a guarantee, but I think the playoff odds should be closer to +250.
I believe the Hurricanes will make the playoffs if SMU beats Clemson in the ACC title game on Saturday. (Mustang is favored by 2.5 points).
In most cases, 11 of the 12 spots are designated. The final at-large bid will likely be Miami, SMU (if they lose to Clemson), Alabama, Ole Miss, or South Carolina. I think a lot of the so-called experts in gaming, television, etc. mistakenly assume that the SEC brand will be respected.
The Hurricanes, who are 10-2, have some weak schedule metrics, but were still ranked sixth last week. I don't think the committee would significantly downgrade it because of the 4 point road loss.
As of Monday, Alabama has -145 odds to make the playoffs, but I doubt the committee will reward a team that just lost to unranked Oklahoma, 24-3. With three losses, the Crimson Tide no longer have Nick Saban's influence or prestige, and are in a weaker position than the odds suggest.
Do you want to bet on college football?
When it comes to longshot bets, you don't expect to win everything. I'm just going to grab the value, and that's what we have with Miami. Too much noise and self-aggrandizement by talking heads. Considering this is the first year of the 12-team playoffs, there is no standard for this upset.
+800 means a lot whether the bet wins or not.
Bet: Miami advances to College Football Playoff (+800, DraftKings)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Doug Kezirian is a contributor to the New York Post and currently serves as chief content officer at sports betting media company Only Players. Doug has over 20 years of experience in sports betting, including 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He also grabbed headlines in the 2021 NFL Draft for $297,000.
