Today, as I gather with service members, civilians, and senior leaders at the Pentagon Center Courtyard for the 25th Anniversary of the 9/11 Pentagon Observance Ceremony, it’s a moment to pray, remember, and honor those who lost their lives and the brave first responders from that fateful day. Standing here, on this sacred ground a quarter-century later, it’s clear that remembrance should come with a commitment to stay vigilant.
One of the key insights from the 9/11 Commission Report remains a significant warning: our most critical weakness was not a lack of intelligence, but rather a deep “failure of imagination.” That morning, we learned how our foes could stretch the limits of conventional thinking, operating within the realm of the unimaginable.
To safeguard our nation for the next 250 years, counterintelligence (CI) must embrace a new principle: Never underestimate the audacity of our enemies. We need to overcome our mental blind spots, dismiss the fantasy of shared logic, and remain alert to how the legal and civic structures of our open society can be exploited against us.
A New Principle for Counterintelligence
James Olson, a former CIA Chief of Counterintelligence, outlined the “Ten Commandments of Counterintelligence” in his influential book, To Catch a Spy. These guidelines—like “Be Offensive,” “Know Your History,” and “Never Give Up”—serve as foundational teachings for CI agents navigating a complex landscape. They are undeniable truths, born from valuable successes and significant failures. Still, we need an eleventh commandment for today: Never Underestimate the Audacity of the Enemy.
Our adversaries consistently aim at national defense information. The battlefield is not confined to overseas; it’s also found in the Pentagon, on military bases, and within the communication channels of service members, civilians, and contractors alike. Foreign threats are using advanced online methods and social engineering to gather intelligence, provoke media leaks, and incite unauthorized disclosures.
As they exploit our open society, we must expand upon Olson’s principles. While we are trained to adhere to a rigorous verification process to prevent over-paranoia, we too often overlook crucial threats. This oversight isn’t from a lack of information but stems from a significant cognitive blind spot: we struggle to accept that the enemy could act with such boldness.
The Historical Cost of Cognitive Blindness
A failure of imagination—the inability to foresee unprecedented threats—has frequently reshaped American history. For CI professionals, underestimating the enemy’s audacity can have dire consequences.
Back in 1941, U.S. intelligence agencies overlooked espionage activities conducted by the Japanese consulate in Honolulu, which provided vital information that facilitated the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor.
In a similar vein, during the Manhattan Project, U.S. counterintelligence made a critical error by focusing solely on Axis infiltrators and failing to anticipate that an ally might recruit spies. As a result, individuals like Klaus Fuchs and Theodore Hall could easily evade detection, as officials never suspected that gifted scientists would endanger atomic secrets.
Fast forward to February 2001, when U.S. counterintelligence uncovered that FBI agent Robert Hanssen had exploited significant weaknesses within the Bureau’s security for twenty years. The internal system relied on a dangerous assumption: that one of its own officers would never betray the country in exchange for money, which proved to be a catastrophic miscalculation.
Then came the tragic events of September 11, 2001. The official 9/11 Commission Report pointed out a collective “failure of imagination” and poor interagency communication. There was intelligence in hand, yet we did not comprehend that Al-Qaeda would be able to exploit U.S. flight schools to turn commercial planes into guided missiles aimed at the core of American power.
The Illusion of Shared Logic
One of our greatest vulnerabilities lies in “mirror-imaging”—the presumption that the enemy’s decision-making mirrors our own. We often unconsciously rely on Western norms, questioning whether an operation is too resource-heavy or complex.
However, our adversaries don’t adhere to our guidelines. By assuming they act “reasonably,” we inadvertently create a space of the unimaginable. In that space, the enemy can take advantage of the gaps in our logic, where our assessments deem actions too risky or outrageous to consider.
Weaponizing the Open Society: The Long Game
For adversaries, the legal and civic frameworks of our open society serve as potential vulnerabilities.
Take the example of U.S. military naturalization processes. Under Executive Order 13269, non-citizens who serve during certain conflicts can fast-track their citizenship. While this rightly rewards honorable service, it also poses a significant risk. We must consider the possibility of a foreign intelligence service sending operatives to enlist, rapidly gain citizenship, obtain security clearance, and ultimately become well-placed spies or saboteurs.
An even more unsettling possibility involves generational sleeper agents. Recently, the Supreme Court reinforced that children born in the U.S. to parents who are temporarily or unlawfully present are citizens by birth. For foreign intelligence organizations, this offers a constitutionally protected avenue for long-term infiltration.
Picture a foreign intelligence operative giving birth on U.S. soil. The newborn—having citizenship—then moves abroad to be raised with a specific ideology. Twenty years down the line, this individual returns to the U.S. with a legitimate passport, obscured background, ready to pursue a STEM degree and potentially integrate into the defense or intelligence sectors. This is the chilling consequence of an adversary willing to exploit our own Constitution over several decades.
The Cognitive Shift
In order to tackle this asymmetry, CI professionals must approach “improbable” scenarios as valid threats. If an operation appears too intricate or long-term for the enemy, it should immediately be treated as a serious risk.
Complacency and arrogance are allies of audacity. When a nation starts to believe its defenses are impenetrable and its laws safe from manipulation, it stops being alert to unconventional threats. We must actively envision the worst possible scenarios—because our adversaries are certainly planning them.
Michael Dulak is the Director of Counterintelligence & Identity Intelligence in the Office of the Under Secretary of War for Intelligence & Security. He has more than forty years of experience in counterintelligence. The perspectives shared in this piece reflect the author’s own opinions and do not represent the views or policies of any government agency.
