If you've ever read the old fable “The Tortoise and the Hare,” you know that slow and steady wins the race.
Both Michigan State and Washington State will get a taste of something they haven't yet experienced this season on Monday night in the College Football Playoff National Championship.
The Wolverines will be facing the best quarterback they've ever seen in Michael Penix Jr., who was nothing short of sensational in the semifinals against Texas. He threw for 430 yards and completed 73.6 percent of his passes with two touchdowns.
Michigan's secondary was successful in eliminating a deep ball from Jalen Milroe in last week's semifinal win.
Still, Penix Jr. has a trio of elite receivers in Roman Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Jaylin Polk, who are projected to be first-round NFL picks.
Against Texas, the three combined for 305 yards and both scored a touchdown.
With that in mind, the Huskies are lining up against the best opposing defense ever.
Michigan has been solid against the air attack, ranking in the top 10 in attempts, completions and yards allowed.
Penix and company defeated it against Texas.
However, Michigan is just as strong as the Longhorns on the defensive line, only with better cornerbacks.
The only similar talent Michigan's secondary schools were tasked with covering the past two years was Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr. They shut him down last season and this season by having two different quarterbacks throw him the ball.
These crimes hit from completely opposite ends of the spectrum.
Washington found success by blowing opponents off the map with 37.6 points per game.
Michigan runs an attrition strategy that eats up time with an effective run game, and the defense takes away from it.
Michigan has not allowed more than 24 points in a game and is averaging 243.1 yards per game, the lowest in the nation.
So what happens when you wash it? Considering how both teams are competing against such an unaccustomed feat, some unexpected game scenarios could arise.
When trying to pinpoint which one presents a more specific betting path, I think this comes down to the advantage Michigan State has with its run concept.
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The Wolverines are certain to move Blake Collum out of the backfield. He gained 79.3 scrimmage yards and accounted for 25 of Michigan's 36 rushing scores this season.
He was especially effective in the red zone. He helped propel the Wolverines to seventh overall in rushing scoring from within the 20 points of opponents.
Once they get the ball, the Huskies' unit, ranked 112th in defense, stands in the way of a rushing attack in the red zone.
The factor working in Michigan's favor here is the disparity in discipline. The Wolverines have the second-fewest penalties, as opposed to the Huskies, who rank 137th.
The officiating could have a big impact on the outcome, considering ACC referee Marcus Woods is calling the fight. He has thrown at least two defensive pass interferences per game this season.
This is a methodical Michigan unit that has established itself with excellent watch management throughout the year. The Wolverines lead college football with an average scoring differential of 25.8 points, although he only runs 63.2 plays per game.
Penix should present a strong challenge, but I'm leaning toward Michigan to limit explosive plays similar to the one against Milroe.
After all, the Tortoises should defeat the Rabbits again, as Michigan State is delaying this move to cover the spread of the conflict.
Pick: Michigan State -4.5 (-115, BetMGM)
