The Mets fought back late Tuesday night, cutting the Braves’ six-run lead to one in the bottom of the ninth inning (and ruining my U9.5 ticket in the process).
Unfortunately, they didn’t come close, but their offense was awakened.
Meanwhile, the Braves continued to cook, producing another six-run performance. Atlanta’s batting lineup has him leading all MLB offensive linemen in fWAR (3.8) and wRC+ (138), but tied for points scored (69).
However, it’s not all good news. Superstar ace Spencer Strider may be out for a while, putting stress on Atlanta’s shaky starting pitching staff once again.
Youngster Allen Winans was recalled from Triple-A and made his seventh career major league start.
His second major league start was against the Mets, the team that originally drafted him, and he pitched seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts.
However, in his third start, against Queens, he allowed seven runs on nine hits.
The Mets will counter with Jose Quintana, who has been great in his two starts this year.
With Kodai Senga placed on the injured list, the 35-year-old southpaw has assumed an even more important role.
Mets vs. Braves odds
| team | money line | spread | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| mets | +136 | +1.5 (-142) | o9.5 (-112) |
| Braves | -162 | -1.5 (+120) | u9.5 (-108) |
Mets vs. Braves predictions
(7:20 PM ET, New York)
Quintana has allowed nine earned runs in 10 1/3 innings pitched in his past two trips to Trust Park, his most recent trip being last August.
That makes sense. Quintana is a sinker curveball pitch-to-contact lefty who relies on solid command (102 locations+) to compensate for his weaknesses (88 staffs+).
The Braves crush those types of pitchers. With seven right-handers in the lineup, they have a better profile, projection, and performance against left-handers, posting a 135 wRC+ against teams in 2023 compared to 123 against right-handers. Did. He also boasts the second-highest OPS (.897) and xwOBA (.401) against southpaw sinkers since the start of last season.
I think Winans has potential as a mid-rotation piece, but I’m curious to see what his future holds. He boasts excellent command and control of his four-pitch mix, plus his elite enhancements aid in deception. Still, he lacks stuff (77+, no above-average pitches) and speed.
Meanwhile, the Mets offense woke up and scored 13 points during this series in Atlanta. As mentioned, they’ve been to Winans before, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them do it again.
Besides, no one knows how long Winnan’s lead will be. He only made one Triple-A start before being recalled, so he may not be at his full potential.
And if he is pulled early, the Braves could be in trouble. On Tuesday night, closer Raisel Iglesias threw 23 pitches, and Aaron Bummer and Tyler Matzek each threw 19 pitches. The bullpen looks a little stretched.
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I think the weather is partly to blame for Tuesday’s Mets vs. Braves game. This is because the temperature is low and the wind that blows in suppresses the driving environment.
Although the wind is still expected to blow toward home plate, humidity and temperatures are rising, making driving conditions actually warmer than Tuesday. BallParkPal’s Park Factor predicts a run factor of just -4% for Wednesday night’s game.
So between Quintana’s struggles at Truist, Atlanta’s thin pitching depth, and two red-hot offenses, I’m willing to turn heel and bet on the over in this division game.
Mets vs. Braves nominations
9.5 or above (-112, DraftKings)
