After dominating the Tigers at home over the weekend, the Yankees (23-13) will play three more straight games against the Houston Astros at Yankee Stadium.
The Stros have yet to overcome their early-season slump and are 12-22 on the year after losing their home series against Seattle last weekend.
But Houston’s problems primarily lie on the mound, and Justin Verlander hopes he can alleviate some of those issues when he makes his fourth start in 2024.
Astros vs. Yankees predictions
(7:05 p.m. ET, TBS)
The 41-year-old future Hall of Famer had three decent starts, pitching 17 1/3 innings and allowing just four earned runs.
But I think he was mostly lucky.
Verlander boasts a very low BABIP (.239) and a very high strand rate (93%), two numbers that should regress to MLB average (.300 and 72%) and more. This will result in an unearned run.
His underlying profile still leaves room for improvement.
His strikeout rate has decreased (19%), his walk rate has increased (10%), and his ground ball rate has plummeted (32%), resulting in a mostly pedestrian batted ball profile.
I believe Verlander is overrated entering Tuesday’s starting lineup, but this is a comparison between his actual metrics (2.08 ERA, 4.35 FIP) and expected metrics (XERA 3.82, XFIP 4.70). partly explained by the difference.
Luis Gil, on the other hand, is technically undervalued by expected metrics (3.19 ERA, 2.29 ERA), but the main reason for that is that he has a brisk fastball in the high 90s (31 innings pitched this season). This is because he is a strikeout machine with 40 strikeouts).
But Gil’s questionable command and control of his electric weapon (20 walks, 93 location+marks) could hurt him against the always disciplined Astros (17% strikeout rate, lowest in the MLB lineup, Swing strike rate 10%, 3rd place).
Gill wants to miss the at-bat, and the Astros won’t misjudge his swing.
Both are top-of-the-line lineups. Against right-handed pitchers, the Yankees rank him 4th in wRC+ (120) and the Astros rank him 8th (108).
Between two elite batting lines and two questionable pitchers, I’m looking for a more high-scoring ballgame Tuesday night in the Bronx.
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Juan Soto could take advantage of Verlander’s fly balls on the short porch in right field, while Yordan Alvarez could draw four walks against Gil.
It’s a little scary to have these two rest the bullpen. However, while New York’s relief staff was in poor shape (2.27 ERA, 1st among MLB bullpens), Houston’s relief staff was a disaster (4.44 ERA, 21st), and the batting lineup in the final stages of the game was poor. It won’t disappear completely.
You can’t go wrong with the over 8.5 (-112) available on FanDuel. This number has been slowly increasing since the market opened.
Astros vs. Yankees picks
8.5 or higher (-112, FanDuel)
