I will ignore Blake Snell until proven otherwise.
After a great 2023 Cy Young season, the southpaw hasn’t adjusted to his new uniform.
He allowed a whopping 15 runs in his first 11²/₃ innings with San Francisco, good for an ERA of 11.57.
I’m expecting a positive regression, but I still think Snell is vulnerable and easy to hit, even though his expected ERA is around 4.00.
His fastball Stuff+ mark is 14 points lower than last year, and he doesn’t swing or chase as much outside the zone (30% in 2023, 25% in 2024), forcing him to attack the zone more. (32%) 38% in 2023 and 38% in 2024).
And his Stuff+ rating on his fastball has dropped by 14 points (120 in 2023, 106 in 2024), so he’s getting hit in the zone more.
I’m equally concerned about Mets starter Sean Manaea.
His fastball velocity has decreased significantly, forcing him to nibble around the edges, and he has already walked 10 batters in 19 innings.
His ground ball rate has dropped to a pitiful 28 percent, which means he’s allowing plenty of heavy fly ball contact.
Manaea’s ERA is just over 4, but his expected ERA is closer to 6 thanks to his high walk and fly ball rates.
Meanwhile, these two lineups have been turning heads, ranking in the top 10 in wRC+ over the past two weeks.
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Furthermore, the wind is expected to blow toward center field during the game, which is likely to increase the number of fly balls and create a better running environment.
So I’m looking for a high-scoring game in the Bay Wednesday between two hot batting lineups, two ice-cold pitchers, and favorable weather conditions.
play: Mets vs. Giants 7 runs or more (-105, BetMGM)
