Happy Friday! Check back for more details on the MLB Prize Pick Board.
All 30 teams will be in action on Friday night.
Let’s get straight to the point and share some of my favorite selections today.
Luis Severino has less than 5.5 strikeouts
Severino missed the first few months of the season with a strained lat and made just two starts this season.
He had fewer than 5.5 strikeouts in both starts and finished with just five in each start.
His strikeout rate has dropped significantly, standing at just 23.3% for the season.
He’s not just dealing with bad luck either, as he manages only a 9.5% swing strike rate.
His slider miss rate was 41.7% last season, but it’s only 26.7%.
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Today, he faces a tough matchup against the Dodgers, who boast .340 wOBA and +115 wRC against right-handed pitchers this season.
Both are ranked second in the league.
Their expected batting lineup this year has a cumulative strikeout percentage of just 19.7% against right-handed hitters and walks at an elite 11.0% clip.
Severino is also likely still at his limit as he threw just 75 and 83 pitches in his first two starts.
It will be difficult to throw deep in this game against an elite offensive team with a limited number of pitches.
I hope he hits 5.5 or less today.
Tyler Glasnow, 6.5 or more pitcher strikeouts
Glasno made his season debut against the Dodgers last weekend, returning from Tommy John surgery in 2021 and an oblique injury in spring training.
He was able to throw 83 pitches in 4.1 innings and could only get better from there.
The results were mixed, with 8 strikeouts and only 1 walk, but he gave up 5 hits and 3 runs.
Some rust was to be expected after such a long layoff, but it’s been a successful comeback for Glasno.
The last time we saw Glasnow healthy was in 2021, when he dominated the league with a 36.2% strikeout percentage.
He appeared to be returning to that form in his 2023 debut.
He averaged 96.5 mph on the fastball and produced elite miss rates on both the slider (62.5%) and curveball (54.5%).
A matchup against the Red Sox at Fenway Park isn’t ideal, but it’s better than the first matchup against the Dodgers.
The Red Sox have a low strikeout rate overall, but this season all of the bottom five hitters in the expected standings have struck out 24.4% or more against right-handed pitchers.
If he can keep the damage from higher ups down, he should be able to earn 6.5+ strikeouts.
Logan Webb has 5.5 or more strikeouts
Webb has been an elite pitcher for the past two seasons, but this season he’s taken another step forward.
He has a 3.02 SIERA, a 26.9% strikeout percentage, and a 4.9% walk percentage this year, all of which represent career highs.
Webb is off to the best start of the season against the Brewers, giving up just one run in 7.0 innings.
He struck out 11, allowed just four hits, and walked just one.
Bet on baseball?
Today, he faces an Orioles team lacking one of the best hitters due to Cedric Mullins’ recent placement in the IL.
He signed Aaron Hicks as a replacement after the Yankees released him, and has a 29.3% strikeout percentage against right-handed hitters this season.
Webb has the longest lead in baseball, averaging nearly 98 starts this season and throwing over 100 pitches in five starts.
He has 5.5 or more strikeouts in eight of his 11 starts this season.
I think he’s doing it again against a weakened Orioles lineup.
