Monaco Grand Prix 2024: Charles Leclerc’s date with destiny

May 25, 2024

78 laps.

260.286 kilometers.

A date with your soul mate.

Any way you measure it, Charles Leclerc is finally going to slay his personal dragon of history at his home race, the Monaco Grand Prix.

Although Leclerc famously struggled in the race, which took place on the streets where he was born, raised and learned to drive, the Ferrari driver will once again start from pole position at the Monaco Grand Prix.

And the conditions couldn’t have been more favorable for his eventual victory.

His teammate Carlos Sainz Jr. started from third place. The Ferrari duo haven’t always worked perfectly together Sainz’s post-qualifying comments so far have suggested that, like many in F1 circles, he is expecting Leclerc to win Sunday’s race.

“Yesterday I was very fast on the long runs, but for some reason this weekend I struggled on the short runs and the long runs felt much better. This is something I need to evaluate, but I’m confident that I’ll have good long run pace tomorrow.” Sainz said trackside after qualifying.“Here it was just a matter of track position, I didn’t qualify in a good position and dropped down the order, but this is Monaco and, as always, anything can happen. We will do our best, but the priority is to win tomorrow with Charles.”

Sainz repeated this statement at the FIA press conference after qualifying.

“We’ll see what we can do at the start, what we can do with the strategy and then do everything we can to help Charles win. He’s been driving great all weekend and I think part of the difference is down to Charles being extremely dedicated and having a particularly strong weekend.” Sainz added:“I think he’s been on a roll this weekend since FP1 and has been very fast, so we’ll do our best to win the race tomorrow.”

Leclerc has won domestic pole positions before, most recently in 2022, with Sainz starting alongside him in second place. However, a miscalculated strategy call during a rainy period in the race led to an infamous moment when Leclerc was told to pit but received a delayed message to stay on track. However, it was too late as Leclerc had already decided to make a pit stop and the team, which had just finished servicing Sainz ahead of him, was not ready for him.

The mistake cost him valuable track position and likely the race.

But that was 2022. It’s 2024 now.

Of course, he’ll be battling the McLaren duo of Oscar Piastri (second) and Lando Norris (fourth), with Max Verstappen always lurking despite starting sixth, but this could be his best chance to break the Monaco curse.

And, as has been the case all week, that’s the biggest story coming into this Grand Prix Sunday, but it’s not the only story.

How far can Max Verstappen climb?

As always, Max Verstappen is lurking.

But it will take something special from a driver, a safety car or weather intervention, or a combination of all three, to stop the three-time Drivers’ Champion from claiming his first victory on home soil – after all, the last time a driver starting outside the top three won in Monaco was in 1996, when Olivier Panis triumphed from 14th on the grid.

Where will Verstappen start in sixth place? A driver has ever won the Monaco Grand Prix after starting from sixth place.

The current forecast shows a slight chance of rain tomorrow, 3% at time of publication One of the above options may not be an option for Verstappen, who was less than optimistic about his chances after Saturday’s qualifying.

“It’s not going to be fun,” said Verstappen. “All the laps I’ve done so far have been difficult to be consistent at low speed. Of course, in the race you’re not pushing to the limit and everyone is conserving energy. [the car] And you [tires] With that, we also calm down a little bit.”

Still, that may not help Verstappen given how far up the order he has to climb.

“But we don’t have the fastest car, so everyone in front of us is faster,” the Red Bull driver added. “We just keep up. It’s Monaco, anything can happen, but I’m not expecting miracles.”

What will McLaren throw at Ferrari and can they win in the pits?

Which team has the best chance of denying Leclerc glory in his hometown?

McLaren.

With Oscar Piastri starting second alongside Leclerc, and team-mate Lando Norris just behind him in fourth place, McLaren have the chance to take the lead early in the race and potentially defend it for 78 laps – which is often the quickest route to victory in Monaco given how difficult it is to overtake.

But like everything at the Monaco Grand Prix, getting a lead at the start will be a tough task, so it could come down to which team is better in the pit lane.

“So, at any track, the run into Turn 1 is always your best chance, and here, of course, as we know, it’s a very short run,” Piastri said at the FIA press conference after qualifying. “Yes, strategy-wise, we can try something, because overtaking is not possible here unless there is a big difference in pace, which I don’t think will be the case, so it will probably be won or lost in the pits. So, try to have a good day.”

Will Pierre Gasly be able to get an advantageous start and get into the points?

A year ago, Esteban Ocon threatened for pole position and ultimately qualified third, with the Alpine driver scoring his only podium of the season there.

The Alpine driver starting from the top of the grid this year will be team-mate Pierre Gasly, who made it into Q3 for the first time this season and will start from 10th place on Sunday.

But how far up the grid can Gasly climb on Sunday, and can the Alpine driver use a points start to his advantage to extend his record in the 2024 campaign?

2024 has been a tough challenge for the French team this year, but Alpine have certainly made progress in recent weeks, with Ocon scoring the team’s first points in Miami, but it would be a big step forward for them if Gasly could move up a few places and bring more points to the team.

Will Mercedes pull off a shocker as well?

Will Mercedes be able to make the most of the opportunities they have on Sunday?

After Friday’s race, George Russell said he wanted the team to compete for a top-five position in qualifying, and Mercedes did just that on Saturday. Russell will start from fifth on Sunday, with Lewis Hamilton just behind him in seventh.

Mercedes was a little frustrated at not starting from the front but they have certainly made progress this week.

“Looking at the final positions on the timesheets fifth and seventh look pretty similar but in reality our pace was good and we were just a few milliseconds behind George and second or third place,” team principal Toto Wolff said after qualifying. “Lewis had a very strong weekend but it just didn’t come through on his final run. The sport is now probably closer than ever, with small margins in every discipline and, as always, it was difficult to find the best positions. [tires]But in the last lap we achieved all our targets and that’s probably the pace of the car at the moment.

“At the end of the day, this is always a tough track for us and we’ve enjoyed a pretty competitive weekend so far. Hats off to the team at the factory for their work as well, who have made updates for this race. They’ve done a tremendous job getting everything ready and working properly. It’s great to see everyone pushing as hard as we are, and hopefully we can continue to grow from here.”

As we’ll soon see, Mercedes has a few options when it comes to strategy, but with both drivers in the top seven and one more development expected in Monaco before the final chapter is written, the Silver Arrows are at least in the fight.

What strategy will the team employ on Sunday?

There are some interesting tyre strategies to consider heading into the Monaco Grand Prix.

With the two Ferraris and two McLarens at the front, is it possible that these teams will opt for the softer compound at the start? All three drivers starting from the front have spoken about the importance of the start and, although it is a short run into Turn 1 at Sainte Devoto, both teams may believe that taking or maintaining a lead into Turn 1 is crucial to their chances of victory tomorrow.

This may mean an early pit stop to switch compounds, but given the number of slow corners in Monaco, tyre degradation is not as severe, so drivers starting on the softs are likely to be able to run close to 30 laps on the softest compound before switching to the hards to finish the race.

Alternatively, the four might play it safe and start on the medium tyre, but will we see, say, Russell starting fifth and Verstappen sixth, both going flat out on the soft tyre?

However, drivers starting from the back could choose to go for the soft tyre in the hope of gaining a bit more ground due to the improved grip levels, but they could also start on the hard tyre, run as long as possible and hope for help after that. Ideally, these drivers would watch a clean race until the end of the pit stop cycle, gaining track position while other drivers dive into the pit lane for the mandatory tyre changes, and then hope for the safety car intervention.

But it’s a Herculean task, especially on days when no rain is expected.