Monaco Grand Prix qualifying: Will this be Charles Leclerc’s day?

Welcome to qualifying day for the Monaco Grand Prix.

On F1’s biggest stage, it’s all about qualifying day.

This could bode well for local hero Charles Leclerc, who topped the timesheets in Friday’s second practice session and, if history is any guide, that could mean Leclerc takes pole position. The last five Monaco Grand Prix We saw the driver who topped the timesheets in FP2 take pole position.

Is it even more frightening for the rest of the field?

Leclerc believes he will have more time on the streets of Monte Carlo.

“I think we can have more pace when we put it all together,” Leclerc said after Friday’s two practice sessions. “If you look at my three sectors, I put it all together and got a decent lap time, so that will be the main focus tomorrow, but I will say the performance and the feeling is there.”

It’s well-known that Leclerc struggles at home races, as the Monegasque driver has never tasted victory on his home soil at any level of racing. In fact, Leclerc is one of five drivers in history to have topped the timesheets in FP2 and taken pole position, as he did at the 2021 Monaco Grand Prix. Leclerc had taken provisional pole position in Q3 that year, but a late crash by the Ferrari driver in the third session froze the field and allowed the local hero to take pole position.

However, the damage was so severe that his SF21 broke down during the reconnaissance lap and he was unable to take part in the race.

Maybe… just maybe, later today everything will change for Leclerc.

Whether Leclerc has a chance of breaking the hometown curse is probably the main storyline from Monaco Grand Prix qualifying day, but it won’t be the only one.

Is Red Bull really at a disadvantage?

Think back to a week ago.

The story coming out of Imola, site of last weekend’s Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, is very similar to what we’re hearing now: Max Verstappen was unhappy with the RB20, other teams were at the top of the timesheets (a week ago Leclerc was quickest in both FP1 and FP2), and perhaps the door was open for other teams to really challenge Verstappen and co. in qualifying and the race itself.

As we’ve seen so many times before, Verstappen closed that door, as he performed strongly in FP3 to secure pole position and then go on to win the race on Sunday.

But this weekend feels a little different.

First, during practice, Verstappen gave feedback on the RB20, comparing it to a kangaroo:

And in the words of the drivers after the session, they dismissed comparisons to last week’s struggles at Imola: “I don’t think you can really put into words what’s going on. It’s very difficult. It’s not that I didn’t expect it, but it’s definitely up there with my worst results so far this weekend,” Verstappen said on Friday.

“Imola was totally different, the problems that can be solved with a set-up were different,” he continued. “These are problems that can’t be solved with a set-up.”

“It’s about the way the car is built and designed and these things can’t be changed overnight so we just have to stick with it. We’ll try to make it a bit better but I’m not expecting miracles,” Verstappen continued.[Ferrari] We are way ahead. I’m not thinking about tomorrow. I’m just going to try to solve the problems I have, make it a bit more drivable and then we’ll see what happens.”

F1 fans and analysts have heard this story before. thread Last week I did that. The caption read: “In other words [Verstappen] Maybe he’ll get pole position and win on Sunday…”

And that’s exactly what he did.

Can he do the same this week, or are Verstappen and Red Bull really on the back foot heading into qualifying?

A Mercedes wonder?

Another shocking piece of news from Friday’s dual practice session?

Mercedes’ incredible strength.

The team has been talking about progress in recent weeks, but Friday may have been the first day of the season where it really looked like Mercedes could compete for points rather than podiums. Lewis Hamilton topped the timesheets in FP1 with team-mate George Russell in third place, and they were strong again in FP2, with Hamilton moving up to second.

Can the Silver Arrows pull off a shock win in Monaco on Saturday?

“It was a good day, probably the best one so far this year and the car feels really good. This track is really great for an F1 car. I enjoyed driving today and was pleasantly surprised with the grip levels and how the car responded, which made it a much more enjoyable drive than I’ve had in the past two years,” Hamilton said in the team’s post-practice report. “I felt a bit less comfortable in the second session. We’ve got a lot of work to do overnight to improve the long runs and the front graining. I had a good feeling with the low fuel consumption and I don’t want to lose that. Right now I’m focused on improving the long runs.”

Russell experienced steering wheel vibration during FP2 which hindered his performance, but he also felt it was one of the team’s best Fridays of the season.

“It was one of our best Fridays of the year. The car feels the best I’ve experienced in Monaco. My session was limited by steering vibration. As soon as I hit the brakes the steering system would shake, which was a big obstacle at this track where you need confidence to attack,” said Russell. “All the teams are improving rapidly and the lap times this year are much faster than last year. The car feels good and Lewis’ time showed how well he’s performing, but we know that Charles (Leclerc) is also very fast and things can change quickly. I’m hoping to fight for the top five tomorrow.”

Simulation data F1.com It shows they have a very good chance of competing for a top five spot tomorrow.

Similar to the Red Bull controversy, Mercedes has been down a similar path before, for example performing well in one Friday practice session at the Miami Grand Prix, before faltering for the rest of the week.

But just as Red Bull feels different compared to last week, there is also a slightly different feeling with Mercedes, they might really be in the fight.

Don’t forget McLaren

Then McLaren.

It was a somewhat mixed day for McLaren on Friday, with Oscar Piastri the second-fastest driver in FP1, ahead of Lando Norris in fourth place.

The second practice session unfolded slightly differently, with Norris moving up to fifth place and Piastri dropping outside the top ten to 12th.

Still, the team called it a “productive” afternoon and believes the MCL38 – including its Ayrton Senna tribute livery – is in good shape heading into Saturday.

“That’s it for Friday in Monaco. Overall I think it was a pretty good day. The pace was good, but the competition between many teams was very strong today so it’s difficult to see how far we will go in the end.” Piastri made the remarks during a post-training report from the team. “There are some things we need to look at and adjust throughout the night, but we feel like we’re in good shape. It’s going to be an exciting Saturday.”

“We had a productive day of practice in Monaco and were able to go through our planned programme without any problems. There was no risk of rain so we had enough time to evaluate the tyres, understand the set-up and give our drivers as much track time as possible,” said team principal Andrea Stella. “It looks like it will be very interesting at the front as there are quite a few fast teams. We will work hard this evening to reach our full potential, have a good qualifying session tomorrow and try to score some points in a race that may be affected by the weather.”

Who will win the battle between Aston Martin and VCARB?

If the qualifying simulation data is as expected, the final two spots in Q3 could be a battle between Aston Martin and Visa Cash App RB F1 Team.

The VCARB drivers in particular looked confident after Friday’s sessions.

“It was another positive first day for us. I had an immediate positive feeling from FP1. There are still a few small things we can improve to extract more performance, but that’s what practice is for. For example, we had a few slides in the braking phase, but overall I think we can improve with this C5. [tire]”It’s very sensitive,” Tsunoda Yuki said in the team’s post-practice report, “Other than that, the warm-up was good and everything is positive, so it’s just a matter of fine-tuning the little things which are always important, especially here in Monaco. The overall pace is there and we’re looking forward to taking another step further tomorrow and making the most of it for qualifying.”

“I’m happy with the work we did today, I think we’re on the pace and maybe the timesheets didn’t give the whole picture, so I think tomorrow on the soft tyre we can fight for the top ten,” added Daniel Ricciardo. “I felt like I had a better rhythm at the end of FP2 and I was happy with my last lap on the medium tyre, so all things considered I think we’re in a good position and now we just need to finalise the set-up.”

An intriguing battle between the two teams is starting to take shape in the Constructors’ Championship, with Aston Martin currently sitting in fifth place with 44 points, 24 behind VCARB in sixth place, but whichever team performs well on Saturday will be in a good position to either extend that lead or close the gap on Sunday.