Following the College Football Playoff Committee's latest rankings and subsequent discussion, we should all be pseudo-experts by now about how the point spread is not the ultimate arbiter of a team's value. However, money speaks, and betting odds matter a lot.
Spreads like “Monday Night Football” inevitably confuse casual bettors. Even if the Dallas Cowboys are relegated to backup quarterback, how can the 4-8 Cincinnati Bengals be a 5.5-point road favorite?
Bengals vs Cowboys odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| bengals | -5.5 (-108) | -230 | o49.5 (-112) |
| cowboys | +5.5 (-112) | +190 | u49.5 (-108) |
Oddsmakers are stubborn. They have barely fallen out of the power rankings without any major incidents. If they lose by a narrow one-point margin to a strong team such as the Chiefs, Chargers, Commanders, Steelers or Ravens (twice), they will not qualify.
I spoke to two oddsmakers and two professional bettors. They all consider Cincy a top-10 team in power rating. That means there are only about seven other teams that have a better advantage than the Bengals on neutral ground.
That's how the gambling world works. Sports fans will subscribe to stories where bad teams find ways to lose and other clichés. However, experts who determine odds focus on box scores and metrics.
The Bengals are just 4-8 against the spread (ATS), so the loss is almost entirely justified, but perhaps the pundits are overestimating Cincy.
Why not incorporate a metric called “schedule strength”?
Do you want to bet on the NFL?
I like the Bengals scoring.
Dallas clearly looked much more capable on Thanksgiving, but they also faced the lowly Giants. Despite Cincy's woes, the Cowboys are 4-7-1 ATS. So the Bengals aren't necessarily playing a better-than-expected team, which suggests this is a fair point spread.
Additionally, all four of the Bengals cover songs are my favorites. Overall, they are 4-4 ATS as favorites, 3-0 on the road and 5-1 ATS on the road.
This seems like a great opportunity for Cincy to break a three-game losing streak.
BET: Bengals -5.5 (-108, DraftKings)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Doug Kezirian is a contributor to the New York Post and currently serves as chief content officer at sports betting media company Only Players. Doug has over 20 years of experience in sports betting, including 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He also grabbed headlines by taking $297,000 in the 2021 NFL Draft.
