Outlook for 2026: Mineral and Metal Prices
BMI, a branch of Fitch Solutions, maintains a cautiously optimistic view for 2026, predicting slight increases in prices for many minerals and metals. This expectation springs from decreasing tariff uncertainties, robust demand from net-zero transition sectors, and tighter supply conditions.
“We anticipate that average prices for most minerals and metals will be higher in 2026 compared to 2025, as trade tensions ease and the global economy stabilizes,” analysts noted in BMI’s year-end review.
Tariff uncertainties are expected to peak in August 2025. While there is a chance for improved U.S. relations with various global economies in the coming months, the country risk team predicts that these uncertainties will gradually lessen into 2026.
This trend could bolster overall demand for goods. However, the company cautions against potential volatility, especially since certain metals might encounter new tariffs from the U.S. aimed at shielding key domestic industries.
“Copper, in particular, may face additional tariffs. The U.S. Secretary of Commerce is expected to provide insights on the domestic copper market by June 30, 2026, determining whether to implement universal tariffs of 15% from 2027 onward and 30% from 2028 on refined copper,” the analysts explained.
Although China’s housing market continues to struggle due to the slowdown in industrial metal consumption, Fitch’s analysts believe that this will be somewhat balanced by strong growth in the green energy sector, which supports critical minerals like copper, aluminum, lithium, and nickel.
However, ongoing challenges in mainland China’s real estate market might still dampen the growth of industrial metal prices.
Turning to precious metals, while gold prices are expected to rise on average in 2026 compared to 2025, there could be a decline in the latter half of the year as monetary easing loses steam, particularly once the U.S. Federal Reserve halts interest rate cuts.
“As the monetary easing cycle that started in 2024 begins to lose traction, we expect prices to stabilize in late 2026 and possibly fall below $4,000 an ounce, especially as the Fed pauses any further cuts,” the analysts stated.
Fitch adds that gold’s prior upward momentum may diminish by the third quarter of 2026, as the global economy further stabilizes, tariff uncertainties reduce, and much of the prior weakness in the U.S. dollar is resolved.
“Our Country Risk team suggests that the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) won’t show the same volatility in 2026 as it did in early 2025, which could temper the appreciation of both industrial and precious metals.”
“While we expect DXY to stay within a broad range of $95-$100 over the next several quarters, a slight move upwards remains possible, especially if the U.S. economy performs better, potentially limiting gold price increases.”
Fitch noted that the overall risk to metals price projections remains skewed to the downside in 2026, considering difficult external demand trends and the potential for weaker-than-expected global economic growth, especially in China, the largest consumer of industrial metals. The domestic real estate sector is significant for demand across various metals markets.
“In 2026, we foresee an increase in Western investment across various value chains, both locally and in resource-endowed markets, with new strategic partnerships aimed at securing future supplies. As competition for essential minerals heats up, industrial policy is becoming a key tool for countries aiming for resource security.”
M&A Activity Expected to Persist
Fitch analysts project that mergers and acquisitions in the metals and mining sector will continue through 2026, driven by heightened competition for vital minerals. Companies in the industry are prioritizing opportunities to engage with minerals crucial for energy transitions, including copper, lithium, and rare earths.
Although large-scale capital projects will remain the focus, the report indicates a rise in risk-averse developments.
“We predict that investment in mining projects will persist in frontier markets in 2026. Resource nationalism has been a concern for some time; however, governments and local communities in regions like Africa seem to have increased awareness and bargaining power over mineral resources.”
“This scenario pushes global mining investors to closely follow policy changes in these regions, enabling greater progress in mineral development than in prior years.”
Finally, it’s expected that partnerships with technology, automotive, and aerospace companies—through agreements like offtake—will be crucial in 2026, as supply bottlenecks could pose threats to key growth sectors like AI, robotics, and defense.
