Obamacare Enrollment and Rising Healthcare Costs
NEW YORK/WASHINGTON, Jan 15 – Enrollment for the federally-backed Obamacare plan is set to close on Thursday, while Congress remains divided over how to reinstate the generous tax credits established during the pandemic. Without action, millions of Americans are likely to face increased healthcare expenses in 2026.
In 2025, approximately 24 million people were signed up for this plan, which originated from President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act. Out of these, around 22 million received financial subsidies.
According to health policy firm KFF, premiums are expected to rise dramatically—from an average of $888 in 2025 to $1,904 in 2026. Cynthia Cox, a senior vice president at KFF, noted that these cost hikes could force some individuals to make difficult decisions about their coverage, possibly opting for lower-tier plans or forgoing insurance altogether.
As of now, 22.8 million people have enrolled via Healthcare.gov and state-run platforms, with many states, particularly those led by Democrats, extending their enrollment programs.
States Commit Funding for Support
Additionally, states like Massachusetts, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Maryland, and New Mexico have announced funding to assist low- and moderate-income residents with their healthcare costs. Christina Cousert, director of the National Academy of State Health Policy, expressed skepticism about whether state-funded aid can sufficiently bridge the funding gap, especially given the rising costs associated with Medicaid.
Pennsylvania is mulling over a $50 million aid package for residents, which is substantially less than the $600 million in subsidies previously given. Devon Trolley, the executive director of the Pennsylvania health market, stated, “The amount we’re discussing is a drop in the bucket compared to federal assistance.”
Interestingly, Republican-led states have yet to propose any financial relief for their constituents, despite the fact that these states have benefitted significantly from pandemic-era subsidies. This is mainly because they did not expand Medicaid under the ACA. In fact, out of the ten states with the highest reliance on ACA subsidies, eight are Republican-controlled, including Florida, Texas, Georgia, and others.
Uncertainty Surrounding Aid Extensions
There’s still a possibility for retroactive federal aid extension. Senator Bernie Moreno from Ohio, part of a bipartisan group negotiating an extension, emphasized that a deal should be finalized by the end of January. Meanwhile, Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia noted that while a deal has a “fighting chance”, progress is slow owing to ongoing discussions about the specifics.
One contentious topic is abortion. Lawmakers are divided over whether the Obamacare plan adheres to the Hyde Amendment, which prohibits using federal funds for abortion services. In another development, President Trump indicated that he would soon reveal a framework aimed at enhancing healthcare affordability, highlighting that this will be a key issue in the upcoming elections.
Potential Decline in Enrollment
Experts warn that the government’s enrollment figures for 2026 may include many individuals who were automatically re-enrolled and may end up losing their coverage. Michele Eberle, the executive director of the Maryland Health Benefit Exchange, mentioned that insurers can’t terminate these renewals based on non-payment for the first 90 days.
“We won’t really know until early April whether individuals will actually be dropped for not paying their premiums,” she explained. If Congress is able to extend subsidies and create special enrollment periods, insurance companies could see a boost, as lower costs might attract healthier individuals who don’t immediately require medical care.
Ultimately, Marty Anderson, chief strategy officer for South Central Wisconsin Group Health Cooperative, noted that many consumers are still in the process of paying January premiums, which currently stands at around 30% of their members. He believes that even if subsidy extensions face delays, insurers may benefit in 2027, as it will mean healthier individuals will contribute to pooling, which can lower premiums.
