NASCAR odds, picks at Darlington

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Darlington Raceway for one of the biggest events of the season. The Goodyear 400 starts Sunday at 3pm ET on his FS1.

Last week saw one of the best races in recent memory as Kyle Larson defeated Chris Buescher in the closest finish in NASCAR Cup Series history.

Larson won the playoff race at Darlington last year and should be back in contention. Can he repeat that performance with a third win in 2024?

Below, I’ll be looking at my favorite prop bets for Sunday’s Goodyear 400 race.

NASCAR Cup Series: Goodyear 400 top odds

NASCAR Cup Series: Goodyear 400 Prop Bet

Driver Matchup: Brad Keselowski vs. Kyle Busch (-105, DraftKings)

Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch are past champions in the sport and have also won at Darlington College. Both drivers entered Sunday’s race outside of the top 10, but they showed flashes of brilliance.

Busch has shown plenty of speed at Darlington and will likely finish ahead of Keselowski. He had a great chance to lead 155 laps and win the 2022 playoff race, but engine trouble ended his day.

Keselowski crashed out of the 2022 spring race, but his other results at Darlington during the Next Generation era were 7th, 4th, and 6th.

He is one of the best at managing the tires, which is very important on a circuit like Darlington where tire wear is high. I would consider Keselowski as the underdog who will finish in front of Busch.

Josh Berry wins Group E (+250, bet 365)

Group E has four mid-level drivers: Josh Berry, Daniel Suarez, Michael McDowell and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Berry will be making his first Cup Series start at Darlington, so he has far less experience than the other players.

The course didn’t favor either of them, as the other three drivers all posted average finishes outside the top 20.

I like Berry’s chances on Sunday because of his performances in this year’s Bristol and Richmond races. He showed top-10 speed in both races and finished in the top-12. Bristol’s McDowell (11th) is the only driver to finish in the top 15 through two races.

Bristol, Richmond, and Darlington are highly abrasive intermediates, so they should correlate with each other. Look for Berry to win this group with a top-15 finish.

Toyota Top: Denny Hamlin (+200, DraftKings)

Betting on Denny Hamlin in 2024 is never a bad idea. Had it not been for Hamlin’s late caution last week, he probably would have earned his second straight win and fourth place overall in 2024.

I feel like I say it every week, but Hamlin is headed to one of Darlington’s best tracks. He has led more than 42 laps in three of the past five races, including a win in the 2021 playoff race.

Hamlin had the dominant car in last year’s playoff race, but a loose wheel forced an extra pit stop, ending his chances of victory.

Martin Truex Jr. and Tyler Reddick are his biggest challengers. A top-five finish may be necessary to lead Toyota, but that’s not a problem for Darlington’s Hamlin.

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Bubba Wallace Final Ranking Under 13.5 (-115, Caesars)

High expectations were placed on Bubba Wallace last week as Kansas is one of his best tracks. Unfortunately, this was the third consecutive year he finished outside the top 15.

Wallace should get back on track at Darlington. It took him a while to understand the course, but he has had three consecutive top-10 finishes.

These finishes are no fluke, as Wallace has ranked 12th or higher in the speed ratings for the past three Darlington races.

I think Wallace has a good chance of finishing in the top 10. You don’t need that much, as any 13th place or higher will trigger a winning bet.