Dover Motor Speedway is the site of this week’s NASCAR Cup Series race. You can watch the Würth 400 live on Sundays at 2pm ET on FS1.
Last season, Martin Truex Jr. earned his fourth career win at Dover. Truex held off a late charge from Ross Chastain to earn his first win of 2023. Both drivers are among the favorites to win on Sunday.
Tyler Reddick aims to become the first driver to win back-to-back races in 2024. Reddick surged to victory after a final-lap crash at Talladega last week.
How should I approach the Würth 400? Check out my favorites prop bet Ready for Sunday’s Cup Series race.
NASCAR Cup Series: Wurth 400 prop bet
Driver Matchup: Bubba Wallace vs. Joey Logano (+120, bet365)
Every good driver has that one track that gives them trouble. Joey Logano is a two-time Cup Series champion, but Dover has always given him trouble.
Focusing on the two races of the Next Generation era at Dover, Logano was terrible. He has finished outside the top 25 twice and is 25th out of 33 drivers in the speed rankings.
Bubba Wallace wasn’t very good at Dover, finishing between 11th and 16th three years in a row. That may not seem like a great thing, but Logano’s struggles at Dover may be just fine.
This is a great way to fade Logano into Sunday’s race at Dover.
Alex Bowman wins Group G (+220, caesars)
Alex Bowman has had a quietly good season, with four top-five finishes in 10 races. Bowman has had a lot of success with monster miles, so he should be at his best this week.
In his past six starts at Dover, Bowman has posted five top-five finishes. That includes a win in the 2021 race where he led the final 98 laps.
He will face Logano, Chris Buescher and Tyler Reddick in this bet. While we’ve discussed Logano’s struggles, Redick and Buescher have never finished higher than eighth at Dover.
We could see Bowman fast enough to break into the top five as he finishes ahead of Redick, Buescher and Logano.
Top Chevrolet: Chase Elliott (+600, draft kings)
Sunday will be a tough battle for the Chevrolets as Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain and William Byron will be the favorites to win the race. However, I would like to focus on Chase Elliott.
Elliott has been gaining momentum and finally found his way to victory two weeks ago. He headed to the Dover circuit with two wins and nine top-five finishes. He won the first Next Generation race at Dover and led 72 laps in the 2022 race.
This is the third time in his Dover career that he has led more than 70 laps. I’m not saying he’ll have another dominant performance, but he has potential.
Larson and Chastain are priced appropriately as favorites, but Elliott shouldn’t be +600. I love the value he has leading the Chevrolet camp at Dover.
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Winning car number: 0-9 (+135, caesars)
I talked about Elliott (No. 9 car) as a top candidate in the Chevrolet camp. Now, his two other Chevrolet drivers in this group are Chastain (1st) and Larson (5th).
Chastain has been No. 1 in the speed rankings for the past two races at Dover. He led 86 and 98 laps, finishing third and second respectively.
Excluding last year’s race, Larson has finished sixth or better at the Dover event four years in a row. He has the car to win in 2021, leading 263 of 400 laps. There’s no question he’ll be the top choice Sunday.
Kyle Busch (8th) and Brad Keselowski (6th) are past Dover winners. The key drivers to watch are Chastain, Larson, and Elliott.
