NASCAR odds, picks for COTA

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Austin, Texas for a race at Circuit of the Americas, the first road course race of 2024. This will be the fourth time a Cup Series race has been held on the 20-corner road course.

This race should be very different from last week’s thrilling race at Bristol. There was a lot of tire wear on the short track, so basically everyone was dealing with tire issues.

In the end, Denny Hamlin won for the fourth time in his career at Bristol.

Joe Gibbs Racing has been competitive over the past two weeks, but their next generation cars lacked speed on the road course.

This weekend’s race at COTA could open the door for other drivers.

How should I approach Sunday’s race at COTA? My favorite prop bets are available below.

Echo Park Automotive Grand Prix: Best Odds

EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix Prop Bet

Driver Matchup: Ross Chastain vs. Kyle Larson (-115, bet365)

Chastain returns to the place where he won his first Cup Series victory two years ago. He moved AJ Allmendinger in the final turn to take the win at COTA. Overall, this track was very kind to him.

Chastain is the only driver to finish in the top five in all three races at COTA. Kyle Larson had an impressive runner-up finish in 2021. However, the past two years have not shown the same speed.

Larson crashed in both races and finished outside the top 10. Although he is an accomplished road course racer, COTA has been a struggle for the No. 5 team. He will probably have a tough battle against the best drivers at this track.

Chastain should be in contention for another top-five finish and possibly the championship. A strong performance should put him ahead of Larson on Sunday.

Daniel Suarez and Ross Chastain are in the top 10 (+210, caesars)

Chastain should have no problem achieving a top-10 finish, but expects Trackhouse Racing teammate Suarez to join him.

Suarez’s COTA numbers are very misleading. He led his first 15 laps and won Stage 1 of the 2022 race, but was unable to recover from a pit road penalty. Last year, he suffered a slump in the final stages and finished 27th.

Suarez had the fourth best average running position and fifth best driver rating in that race. You could tell by the speed that he had a top-five car, but the end of that race was pure carnage.

Trackhouse Racing should bring plenty of speed to Sunday’s race. Note that both Chastain and Suarez are in the top 10.

Top Ford cars: Austin Cindric (+450; draft kings)

Austin Cindric has long been a great road course racer. He has dominated track types in his Xfinity series and Cup in his series, scoring his 7th top-10 finish out of his 15 career starts on road courses.

Cindric needs to finish well outside the top 25 for the third straight race. He knows COTA is one of his best chances for victory and enters this weekend with back-to-back top-10 finishes at the track.

The accomplished road racer will be competing against the likes of Michael McDowell and Chris Buescher. Both drivers were better than Cindric on road courses in 2023, but Cindric was slightly better at COTA.

Cindric’s aggressive driving style should be on display this weekend. He is on track for a top-five finish and could become Ford’s top driver.

Vehicles finishing on lead lap: 30.5 or higher (-115, caesars)

Last week I had less than 12.5 cars on the lead lap and only made it through with 5 cars. This week we’re going to go in the opposite direction with 31+ cars and finish on the lead lap.

This prop was a hit in 2021 and 2022, but barely missed last year’s race with 29 cars on the lead lap when there were a number of crashes in Turn 1 right after the restart.

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NASCAR changed the restart zone to stake out the field as drivers enter the tight first corner. With fewer vehicles compressed, there should be fewer incidents in the opening turns.

39 cars will take part in Sunday’s race. I don’t think more than eight cars will finish the lead lap.