The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Dover, Delaware for this weekend’s Cup Series races. The one-mile short track will host the Würth 400 on Sunday at 2pm ET on FS1.
2019 Dover winner Kyle Larson is the DraftKings favorite to win (+450). Four of his other drivers have odds of +1000 or less, including past Dover winners Martin Truex Jr. (+600) and Denny Hamlin (+750).
My favorite Würth 400 features two past Dover winners. Overall, all four drivers have had success with monster miles.
NASCAR Cup Series: Wurth 400 best plan
Win: Martin Truex Jr. (+650, fan duel)
Martin Truex Jr. should be the driver to win Sunday’s Cup Series race at Dover. Truex has four Monster Mile wins, including this race last year.
Truex led 68 laps and had to hold off Ross Chastain and Ryan Blaney on a late-race restart to take the win. Dating back to 2019, Truex has finished first or second in five of the past seven Dover races.
He probably has the highest floor of any driver in this field. In 2022, Truex would have finished third if not for his spin on the final lap. He had speed at the beginning of 2021, but his damage affected his overall pace.
I would be surprised if Truex doesn’t run in the top five all day. I think he will do even better when he gets his first win in 2024.
Ross Chastain Top 3 Finish (+240, bet365)
Ross Chastain got off to a strong start to the season, but has fallen into a tailspin. He enters this weekend having finished 13th or worse in four races in a row, but Dover is a great chance to redeem himself.
In terms of total speed, Chastain has been the best driver throughout the past two Dover races. He led 86 laps before finishing third in 2022. He led 98 laps last year before finishing second.
He was the second fastest car in the last two Dover races. If this trend is to be believed, this weekend should be his first win at Dover.
I like Truex a little more than him, but Chastain should be the favorite for another top-three finish.
Denny Hamlin Top 5 Finish (+140, betmgm)
Denny Hamlin was the only driver to lead a lap in every race and has continued to show his speed throughout the season. He could very well extend his winning streak with a strong run at Dover.
Hamlin struggled at Dover for much of his career, but has improved in recent years. He has one win and three top-five finishes in the past six Dover races.
He might have been the car to win the 2022 race. Hamlin won Stage 1, but had to overcome pit road issues. He recovered to fourth place before being involved in a wreck. Barring this issue, Hamlin will likely finish in the top five.
We’ve seen Hamlin’s top-5 speed almost every week. I’m sure he’ll have another great performance in the Monster Mile.
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Chris Buescher Top 10 finish (+120, betmgm)
Chris Buescher could be a hidden candidate in Sunday’s Dover race. Buescher has five top-10 finishes already this season and could be in the top six on Sunday.
Buescher did not finish higher than 14th in his first 11 starts in the Monster Mile. However, he looked much better in the next generation car, finishing 8th and 9th in the last two races.
He showed his speed in both races, finishing fifth and eighth respectively. We’ve seen that speed continue to shine through in 2024, with three top-10 finishes from him on traditional ovals.
Although we don’t expect him to have race-winning speed, Buescher should hover around the bottom half of the top 10.
