For the first time in Cup Series history, NASCAR will head to Iowa Speedway for the Iowa Corn 350 .
This is the first race on NBC/USA television in 2024. You can watch it Sunday at 7 p.m.
This is the Cup Series’ first race at Iowa Speedway, but many of the drivers have experience at the track in the Xfinity Series and Truck Series.
Maybe they’ll have the upper hand on Sunday.
FanDuel has Christopher Bell (+400), Kyle Larson (+550) and Denny Hamlin (+700) as favorites to win.
Bell is a two-time Xfinity Series winner at Iowa.
There is no historical Iowa data for the Cup Series, so we will use similar track types and 2024 speeds to determine our top picks for Sunday’s race.
Denny Hamlin to finish in the top five (+125, bet365)
There aren’t many drivers who have no experience at Iowa, but Hamlin is one of them.
Nonetheless, he was one of the pre-race favorites to win and I expect him to finish strong.
Iowa is a short, flat route through Phoenix, Richmond and Gateway.
Hamlin finished 4th, 6th and 4th in the speed rankings in those three races, respectively. He won at Richmond and placed second at Gateway.
Overall, Hamlin has excelled on short tracks, winning an exhibition race at the Los Angeles Coliseum prior to his Bristol victory.
Don’t let his lack of experience scare you: Hamlin will be in contention to win on Sunday.
Ryan Blaney finishes under 6.5 (+100, Caesars)
We’re expecting a great performance from the Toyota camp, but if any driver is going to spoil the party, it’s Blaney.
The defending Cup Series champion, who has won at Iowa in the Xfinity Series and Truck Series, was supposed to win at Gateway but ran out of gas on the final lap.
Both Phoenix and Gateway have long been among the best tracks on Blaney’s circuit.
We don’t need him to win Iowa or even finish in the top five.
They only need to finish sixth or better to earn the prop.
Martin Truex Jr. defeats William Byron (-115, BetMGM)
Truex finished last week’s race at Sonoma in deep disappointment.
He lost the lead over the final 10 laps and then ran out of gas while running second on the final lap.
Luck hasn’t been on his side lately, but that may change in Iowa.
Truex suffered a flat tire at Gateway and finished 34th.
Prior to that, he had top two speed rankings at Phoenix (fastest) and Richmond (second fastest).
William Byron has had a decent run on short, flat tracks in 2024, finishing better than 14th just once in three races.
Overall, he has finished 15th or worse in four of his last six races.
Both drivers are in better shape heading into Iowa, and ultimately I’m confident Truex will have success on the shorter, flatter tracks in 2024.
Winning manufacturer: Toyota (+125, DraftKings)
The Toyota team approaches this race with high hopes.
Bell was the favorite to win before the race, with Hamlin a close second, and there were plenty of other contenders, including Truex, Reddick, Ty Gibbs and Bubba Wallace.
Bell won at Phoenix, while Reddick, Truex, Hamlin and Gibbs finished in the top six in the speed rankings.
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Hamlin then took the checkered flag at Richmond, with Truex, Wallace and Bell showing top-five speed.
Bell was in the lead at Gateway but finished seventh after suffering engine problems late in the race.
Hamlin, Reddick and Gibbs also had top-five speed results.
Bell’s odds are too short, but he’s my favorite for Sunday’s race.
If it’s not him, any driver from the Toyota camp will do.
