Political analyst Nate Silver will join the oversight board of prediction market PolyMarkets. Announced on Tuesday.
Silver founded 538 in 2008 and left the political news and predictions site and its parent company ABC in 2023.
PolyMarket is the largest prediction market in the country. It is a system that allows users to buy shares in outcomes, effectively creating a stock market based on odds for a particular event. The site covers both political and non-political events.
President Joe Biden was present at the Polymarket event. withdraw from the presidential raceThat’s because Democrats are increasingly demanding it. Shares of Yes rose to 70 cents on July 4, when the market was effectively pricing in a 70% chance that Biden would drop out of the race, before dropping to 32 cents.
Users have wagered more than $16 million in this market alone, and more than $400 million on the site so far this year.
Polymarket also predicts that former President Trump has a 56% chance of winning the November election, that the United States has the best chance of winning the most Olympic gold medals, and that the Kansas City Chiefs are the favorite to win the Super Bowl this season.
“I am excited to join PolyMarket as an advisor,” Silver said in a statement. “Prediction markets are playing an increasingly important role in helping people understand and plan for the future.”
“In this election context, we’ve already seen how valuable it can be to have a real-time data source on questions that are otherwise hard to quantify, like the impact of the debates,” he continued.
