Pollster Nate Silver says there's 'hidden good news' for Democrats in 2024 election results, even as Democrats wonder where they got their messaging so wrong He said he believed that.
In his newsletter, “Silver News” Mr. Silver shared his thoughts on the election and the Democratic Party's crushing defeat.
Silver compared the party's condemnation of Vice President Harris' loss to President Biden's failure to withdraw quickly before the 2004 election.
Former President George W. Bush faced challenges as a sitting president after winning a second term, and Silver said President-elect Trump will face them too.
“And like Bush, Trump is likely going to have a difficult second term,” Silver said.
He continued: happy It's Democratic time. “Mr. Trump has a lot of unchecked power and a 6-3 Supreme Court majority,” Silver wrote. “But from an electoral perspective, these are the seeds of a comeback.”
Silver said Democrats have some issues to overcome, including messaging to people who are “half-heartedly in agreement.” He said the party should put up a “Help Me” sign outside the Democratic National Convention headquarters.
Still, he said there was some “hidden good news” for Democrats coming out of the election, including a reduction in their “structural disadvantage” in the House, Senate and Electoral College.
Silver argued that seven key states are tipping toward Democratic control. Even if Arizona makes it harder for the party to control the state, 308 electors will be “seriously contested” in the 2028 election.
Silver told the Senate that the losses were not as bad as he initially thought on election night. He claims there is a “path back” to the Senate after Democrats captured seats in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Hill/Decision Desk headquarters called the Republican House, but Silver and other news organizations and officials around the country still did not return the calls. He argued that it was “difficult to write” because it would give Republicans a majority, but it would take so long and the race was so close throughout that Trump won the popular vote decisively. , argued that this should bode well for Democrats. . That means the left will have a “relatively even swing” in 2026 and 2028, Silver wrote.
In many ways, “this was a very normal election,” Silver said. He said it's unclear what President Trump's second term will bring, but there may be hope for Democrats.
“What usually happens is that the losing party comes back, so there's always another cycle for Democrats,” he concluded.
