Russia is no longer just fighting a war on the battlefield in Ukraine: the Kremlin is also engaged in hybrid warfare on a global scale.
While Russian President Vladimir Putin’s generals are failing on the battlefields of Ukraine, Russia’s FSB, the successor to the Soviet KGB, is succeeding at espionage, disinformation, sabotage and assassinations — and with Putin at the helm, the FSB may be taking the lead.
Assassinations are coming more and more to the forefront.
The US intelligence agenciesRussian conspiracyEarlier this year a plot was hatched to assassinate Armin Papelger, the CEO of Rheinmetall, a German arms manufacturer that has been making 155mm artillery shells and military vehicles for Ukraine, just one in a series of plots to assassinate defense industry executives across Europe who support the Ukraine war.
This time, Washington was able to warn its colleagues in Berlin, and Berlin security forces protected Papelger and thwarted the plot.
Assassinations have long proven to be an effective tool of the Kremlin: dissidents, oligarchs, serving and retired generals, party officials, and even Yevgeny Prigozhin are routinely killed by falling out of windows, ingesting poisoned hot drinks, suffering from mysterious heart attacks, burning to death in jet crashes, or dying from lead poisoning with a 9mm Makarov pistol.
Moscow will likely take note of the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump at a political rally over the weekend and the further political divisions it has caused across the U.S. It could also further intensify the Kremlin’s interest in leveraging more political killings in the capitals and streets of NATO member states.
Putin has tried to do this before: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky survived multiple assassination attempts by Wagner mercenaries and Chechen special forces, and in March narrowly escaped a Russian missile attack on his motorcade along with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in the Black Sea port city of Odessa that exploded 500 meters away.
The scope of Putin’s expanding hybrid war goes beyond assassinations: FSB operatives and intermediaries are active and posted throughout Europe, North Africa, the Middle East and the United States. Misinformation and disinformation On social media, to recruit spies and traitors, conduct surveillance and carry out sabotage.
The porous border gives Russia and its agents of unrest unlimited access to the country. Known Encounters Since Russia invaded Ukraine, 21,763 Russian nationals entered the country illegally across the southern border in 2022 and 33,000 in 2023.
These numbers include:Sleeper AgentFX’s miniseries “The Americans” is fictional, but it’s rooted in reality. Insider Threat To the country.
This phenomenon is already clearly happening across Europe.Kaya KarasuHe describes this as Russia’s “shadow war” against the West.
Last month, French police arrested a 26-year-old man.Russian Ukrainian manHe was injured while making an explosive device in a hotel room near Charles de Gaulle airport. His target was the Bricolama hardware store. France’s domestic intelligence agency described the incident as “part of a larger campaign of sabotage orchestrated from Moscow.”
In early May,Britain expels Russian defence attachéRussian Colonel Maxim Elovik has been described as an “undisclosed military intelligence officer,” and diplomatic immunity has also been revoked for several Russian-owned properties that were used for intelligence purposes.
And in late May, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said:12 people were arrestedHe described the group as “hired people, sometimes from criminal organisations, of Ukrainian, Belarusian and Polish nationality”, suspected of carrying out “sabotage activities” at the request of Russian (intelligence) services.
The arsenals of democracy that underpin Ukraine’s war effort are increasingly coming under attack, especially artillery and weapons production factories. On April 14, explosions rocked the Ukrainian capital.BAE Systems Weapons FactoryAt Glascoed, the last remaining munitions loading facility in the UK.
On April 15th, a mysterious fire broke out at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant in Pennsylvania.Joint Forces Command FacilityThe factory, which produces 155mm and 105mm artillery shells and 120mm mortar rounds, is owned by the U.S. military but operated by General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems.
Another fire broke out on May 4th.Deal Metal ApplicationDMA is a metallurgical plant in the Lichterfelde district of Berlin. DMA is a subsidiary of Germany’s Diehl Group, which also manufactures the IRIS-T missiles used by Ukraine.
Another fire broke out on June 10th, this time Mesco Arms Factory The incident occurred in Skarzysko-Kamien, Poland. The incident started in one of the factory’s production units and the fire quickly spread throughout the facility. Mesko produces shoulder-fired air defense missiles, man-portable anti-tank and anti-personnel missiles, and small arms ammunition, which Poland sends to Ukraine for its own defense.
Finally, NATO had had enough. Last week in Washington, NATO leadersWashington Summit DeclarationSection 13 of the declaration states, “State and non-state actors are increasingly engaging in aggressive hybrid actions against our Allies. We will continue to prepare for, deter, defend against, and counter hybrid threats and challenges. We reiterate that hybrid operations against our Allies may rise to the level of armed attack and result in the North Atlantic Council invoking Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.”
Paragraph 14 states, “We will continue to develop individual and collective capabilities to analyze and counter hostile disinformation and misinformation activities. NATO works closely with our Allies and partners. We have strengthened our vigilance and sharing mechanisms and enhanced our joint response, particularly in strategic communications.”
Moscow should heed the declaration’s Article 13: If Putin doesn’t back away from hybrid warfare, NATO may be closer than he realizes to invoking Article 5, the organization’s core collective defense provision.
Now is the time for NATO to show courage, chase the Russian bear at its gates, and remind Putin and his generals that NATO has offensive capabilities, too.
Colonel Jonathan Sweet (Ret.)He served as a military intelligence officer for 30 years and led U.S. European Command’s Intelligence Division from 2012 to 2014.Mark TothHe writes about national security and foreign policy.
