According to reports, past and present U.S. Navy leaders say the service is lagging behind advances in Chinese cyberspace operations and that if no action is taken, it could be the same at the start of cyber warfare in 2026. The military said it was in for a “very bad day”. .
In an article contributed to the February 2024 issue of Proceedings, a publication of the U.S. Naval Institute, Vice Adm. T.J. White, Rear Adm. Dannel Barrett (ret.), and Navy Commander Jake Bever wrote that I wrote that I’m not ready. This is because information warfare was not “properly planned” at the intersection of the cyber and maritime warfare domains.
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Hamas terrorist attacks in Israel highlight the need for operational planners to prepare for information attacks not only by state actors but also by non-state organizations and civilians,” the authors write. I write heeding the warning that the United States is not ready. What if a cyber war breaks out in 2026?
That’s because the Navy has not “fully embraced” the benefits of space operations in support of maritime operations, nor has it accepted that there are access benefits to support both cyber and space operations. He added that leaders need to accept these. To defeat the cognitive warfare campaign.
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A paper written by past and present Navy leaders for the U.S. Naval Research Institute argues that the United States is not adequately prepared for cyberwar if it were to break out by 2026. (Joe Radle/Getty Images/File)
“The Navy has an agreed strategy for what warfare in the maritime domain will look like over the next five to 10 years, when acceleration technologies such as hypersonic weapons, artificial intelligence, and artificial intelligence provide advanced capabilities. “Autonomous systems, quantum computing, and free-space optics complicate an already difficult environment,” the authors write. “China, on the other hand, has been planning and carrying out global campaigns in the information field since the mid-1990s.
“Today, China is leveraging its growing control over the cyberspace technology ecosystem, from submarine cable systems to satellite constellations, as well as its control over software platforms and information supply chains, algorithm-driven consumer and media platforms, and War can be used to change the character of a nation by taking advantage of increased control over it.” War is a decisive advantage. ”
The authors based their information on a 2026 war scenario published in December 2023 that suggests this scenario could go badly or very badly for the United States. ing.
Under the “very bad” scenario, the Navy was unprepared because it never committed to fully participate in the intelligence-driven “Cold War” that had been going on for years.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping (AP Photo/Andy Wong/File)
What we lacked in readiness was the investment in people, processes, and systems, and we lacked the vision for how information warfare should be integrated into current operations and strategy, so we did not adopt it at scale. .
“In our scenario, China could attack the source of U.S. naval power using the cognitive warfare capabilities it has invested in, deployed around the world, and employed against U.S. citizens for more than a decade,” the authors wrote. is writing. “Navy leaders were cognitively outmaneuvered and unprepared because their basic assumptions were flawed.”
It also said the sailors were avid users of social media under Chinese influence and had been manipulated to the point of “refusing to fight for a cause they had doubts about or a country they no longer believed in.”
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Naval guided missile destroyer USS Gravely (DDG 107) (U.S. Navy, via Getty Images)
In the second scenario, a “bad” day, the Navy’s investments were not sufficient to adapt and reorient after an attack that caused heavy casualties.
Even if the navy were able to avoid defeat early in the conflict, it is uncertain whether the navy would be able to adapt quickly enough during a multi-year global war to successfully bring it to a close, the authors say. Stated.
The authors of the article said that the Navy’s top officer proposed creating a cyber team in 2019, but as of 2023, it had not been established. He also said the Navy “lacks a coherent vision for maritime information warfare and operational concepts, tactics, and strategies.” and the skills necessary to carry it out. ”
Finally, the authors spoke about former CNO Admiral Jonathan Greenert, who wrote in 2012:[The] The EM cyber environment is now so fundamental to military operations and so important to the national interest that we treat it as a combat domain as important, if not more so, than land, sea, air, and space. I have to start. ”
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They said other CNOs have since issued similar statements, resulting in “some” changes and realignments, but the United States still has not caught up with China in the cyber field.
“In the realm of information warfare, China is not a threat to set the pace, but a threat to be followed,” the authors write. “Too much time has been lost and too little investment has been made to ensure that the Navy does not have a bad day when war begins in 2026. The question is whether the necessary measures will be taken.”
