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NBA New Years Day odds, pick

After a three-game winless road trip, the New York Knicks return home to begin the new year with an afternoon NBA game against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Madison Square Garden.

Saturday's loss to Indiana meant New York traded forwards OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa and guard Malachi Flynn to the Toronto Raptors in exchange for guards RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and a 2024 second-round pick. It happened a few hours after the trade.

While this trade may excite some Knicks fans, it could leave the team short against a quality opponent like the Timberwolves.

Timberwolves Analysis

The situational spot is certainly not in the Timberwolves' favor, given the travel and game start times. If you're playing in New York City after New Year's celebrations, you'll also have to be wary of distractions.

But there's a sense of pride on this Timberwolves team that suggests they're more disciplined.

It all starts on the defensive side of the floor, where the Timberwolves lead the league in efficiency. According to TeamRankings, they are allowing 104.9 points per 100 possessions.


Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards. USA TODAY Sports (via Reuters Con)

Minnesota is about two points better than the second-place team in this category.

The Timberwolves are doing a great job of defending the perimeter. Minnesota ranks third in opponents' 3-pointers made and fifth in 3-pointers allowed.

One of the reasons this matchup is a good fit for Minnesota is that New York's offense can be very static at times.

The Knicks play too much isolation basketball, ranking 28th in assists per game with 23.7. This style of play makes the Knicks predictable for opponents to guard.

Knicks analysis

It will be interesting to see if the new Knicks players join the team for Monday's game. When switching cities or countries like this time, players need time to sort out their surroundings.

If Anunoby, Achiuwa, and Flynn were fit to play, they would not have had enough time to acclimate to the team. Therefore, I do not see their potential involvement as beneficial at this early stage.

Knicks leaders must have felt that Barrett and Quickley were disposable enough to waive two players who combined for 33.2 points per game.


Knicks guard Jalen Brunson.
Knicks guard Jalen Brunson. Getty Images

Anunoby and Achiuwa should bring much-needed defensive strength to this Knicks team. Both players are known for their ability to guard players on the wings.

There will probably be some addition and subtraction in this trade. New York has struggled to balance offense and defense. Defensive efficiency fell from 15th last season to 20th this season.

The Knicks could still be in the market for a top shooting guard even with Barrett gone, so I think there's still room for adjustment on this roster.

However, it may be too early to expect big contributions from reinforcements in Monday's game.


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Timberwolves vs. Knicks predictions

The Knicks are facing an identity crisis as they have taken a more aggressive approach under coach Tom Thibodeau.

Ironically, with their solid defense, the Timberwolves have characteristics we once associated with Thibodeau's teams.

Instead, Thibodeau's Knicks have allowed 127.6 points over their past five games.

If you want to gauge when the Knicks' defense kicks into high gear, look to the softer parts of the schedule.

Minnesota opened as a one-point road favorite, so I recommend avoiding the spread completely and favoring it on the money line.

Pick: Timberwolves ML (-120, Caesars))

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