Minnesota travels to Denver on Wednesday night in a matchup that could decide the top overall seed in the NBA’s Western Conference.
This game is extremely important for both teams, and a win could significantly improve their playoff standings and give them home court advantage in the first round.
Both teams had the same record at 55-24, but Minnesota held a 2-1 advantage in the season series and won the tiebreaker.
That’s quite a bit for an organization that dishonorably suspended one of its players, Rudy Gobert, for throwing a punch at a teammate (Kyle Anderson) during the huddle in last year’s regular season finale. This was a turnaround.
The Timberwolves are a much different team than the Nuggets beat 4-1 in the first round in pursuit of an NBA title last season.
Gobert, by his own admission, was unable to play up to his standards. He barely participated in training camp as he was recovering from a lingering injury sustained at the European Basketball Championships.
With Gobert seemingly getting healthier, the Timberwolves boast one of the best defenses in the league and limit second-chance opportunities against even the most potent rebounding offenses.
| team | spread | money line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Timberwolves | +6.5 (-115) | +200 | o211.5 (-110) |
| nugget | -6.5 (-105) | -250 | u211.5 (-110) |
Timberwolves Analysis
Most teams in the NBA focus on offensive power, but it’s refreshing to see an organization like the Timberwolves take a different approach.
Despite struggling last year, Minnesota finished in the top half defensively (13th), allowing 110.7 points per 100 possessions.
But this season, the Wolves’ defensive rating improved to 105.1, almost three points better than second place.
Now that Gobert is available for full training camp, the Timberwolves have implemented a new defensive scheme that better fits the players around him.
In addition to the drop-coverage strategy that won him three Defensive Player of the Year awards in nine seasons with the Jazz, Gobert’s defensive reach has been expanded by the T-Wolves to electrify ball handlers on the perimeter and confuse opposing teams. I let it happen. ‘Crime.
As a result, it’s not uncommon for Gobert to block shots further from the rim.
With Gobert willing to engage smaller guards on the perimeter, the Timberwolves’ backcourt will likely recover faster in pick-and-roll schemes.
nugget analysis
In the end, the Nuggets defeated the Timberwolves in the first round, but Minnesota probably did a better job of stopping Nikola Jokic than any other team the Nuggets faced on their way to the title.
The Timberwolves were the only team to hold Jokic to less than 50% from the floor (48.2%) during the postseason.
Nuggets point guard Jamal Murray led the Nuggets with 27.2 points in the series. Murray is an essential player for Denver, ranking second in scoring with 21 points per game.
But with the playoffs right around the corner, the Nuggets will have to be a little more cautious with him after he was forced to miss seven games due to inflammation in his right arm.
Murray returned to action for Denver’s last two games, but is currently on a minutes restriction.
The Nuggets easily won both games in his return, winning by double digits, despite facing Atlanta and Utah, teams that rank in the bottom four in defensive efficiency.
Wednesday’s matchup should have a different feel, and with a low total of around 211.5 points, fewer possessions could give the Timberwolves an advantage in keeping the game within reach.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets picks
Things looked bleak for Minnesota after Karl-Anthony Town suffered a torn meniscus in his left knee on March 4th. However, the Timberwolves are 12-5 since the injury.
Both teams are in the same division and therefore know each other well.
Gobert’s ability to contain Jokic to some extent gives Minnesota a chance in this game.
The Nuggets will also have to deal with the decline of Anthony Edwards, one of the league’s biggest rising stars.
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In addition to Towns, the Timberwolves have five players who rank in the top five in defensive efficiency. Minnesota isn’t just about Gobert on defense.
A lot is at stake and this should be a competitive match for both sides. Denver is currently a six-point favorite, but my model separates these teams by roughly his four points.
As a result, bettors should take advantage of the Timberwolves scoring 6.5 points.
