Milwaukee will look to snap up a six-game winning streak when they play the Warriors on Wednesday night.
However, the Bucks could be without eight-time All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo for a second straight game after he felt soreness in his left Achilles tendon during warmups against the Clippers on Monday.
Milwaukee may not want to rush Antetokounmpo back considering the injury first surfaced a few weeks ago.
His possible absence could explain why Golden State is as high as a 4.5-point favorite after opening at -2.
The Warriors will certainly be looking to bounce back after their humiliating 140-88 loss to the Celtics, which ended their winning streak at three.
And the Warriors have two days of rest to heal, which could allow them to get off to a fast start in the first half.
Bucks vs Warriors odds
| spread | total | money line |
|---|---|---|
| Bucks +4 (-110) | 227 or higher (-110) | Bucks +140 |
| Warriors -4 (-110) | Less than 227 (-110) | Warriors -168 |
Bucks analysis
Many factors affect a team’s winning streak. A team may have experienced an increase in offensive power, played a weaker opponent, or simply been lucky to win a close game.
However, I tend to focus on how the team is playing defensively because it takes effort and dedication.
I also strongly believe that good defense is the most sustainable component of a winning team. Because sometimes you’re going to have an off-shot night.
In the Bucks’ case, their winning streak was primarily fueled by their defense. In their last six games, they have held their opponents to under 100 points four times.
According to NBA.com, the Bucks’ Defense rating 102.6 That’s the second-best mark in the league during this period.
Two of Milwaukee’s wins came against the lowly Hornets, but Milwaukee also had wins against four current postseason contenders: the Timberwolves, 76ers, Bulls and Clippers.
Perhaps the most impressive win was against the Clippers. After falling behind by 15 points in the third quarter, Milwaukee regained the lead in the fourth quarter with a 40-point performance to take control of the game.
But while the Bucks were likely propelled to victory by their home crowd, they may find things a little different on the road against a raucous Warriors fan base.
warriors analysis
I was as surprised as anyone to see Golden State beat the Celtics by 52 points on the road. The Warriors were never at their best, trailing by 22 points at the end of the first quarter.
Everything snowballed from there, and the Warriors trailed by 31 points over the next two quarters.
The loss was a disappointing end to a road trip for the Warriors, who started the season 3-0.
Golden State small forward Andrew Wiggins was sidelined for all four games due to personal issues. Wiggins returns to the team as the Warriors begin a three-game homestand.
Golden State has been much better in non-conference games, as evidenced by their 16-7 record compared to 16-21 against the West.
But the Warriors need to find a secondary scorer who can fill the void when Stephen Curry isn’t at his best.
Klay Thompson is Golden State’s second-leading scorer (16.9 PPG), but his offensive struggles led to him being removed from the starting lineup in favor of Brandin Podzemski.
Thompson started against the Celtics, and Podzemski (knee) did not play.
The good news for the Warriors is that Podzemski and Wiggins will return to the team when they host the Bucks.
Bucks vs. Warriors picks
(10 p.m. ET | ESPN)
Considering the Bucks’ improved defense, I’m a little concerned that the Bucks will weaken.
Limiting a Clippers team to 106 points with Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and James Harden is certainly no small feat.
However, my handicap is predicated on the Warriors’ likely response after a lopsided loss.
As a result, I expect Golden State to get off to a fast start, and I expect their chances to improve even more if Antetokounmpo can play.
According to EV Analytics, the Warriors led 5-1 at home at the half.
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But the statistic that really stands out to me is their performance in the first half at home, where the Warriors gave up over 28 runs despite having a .500 record.
According to us Action Lab Databasethe Warriors are a perfect 6-0 in this spot against the spread.
The logic here is that as long as the Warriors have a decent team with no losing record, they tend to respond in the first half when bouncing back from a blowout loss.
FanDuel has the Warriors to cover a -1.5 first half spread at odds of -115.
