Handicapping the first NBA playoff game will inevitably involve some speculation. Considering that interests and magnitude certainly affect outcomes.
Historically, coaches shortened the bench in the postseason and played starters in just a few more minutes. Furthermore, defense is often strengthened, with offensive possessions being more measured.
On top of that, the opener between the Bucks and Pacers on Saturday adds another element as Milwaukee adjusted its style in the last few games. I think this creates opportunities for prop betting.
All-Star Guard Damien Lillard has been out since March 18th, and has a deep venous thrombosis in his right calf. Manager Doc Rivers said Lillard is taking off his blood-hop medicine and extending his increase in basketball activity, but he is reportedly expected to miss the opening game of the series.
During this stretch without Lillard, Rivers began guarding Ryan Rollins, but his offensive rotation and game plans changed dramatically depending on the availability of certain reserves.
Key role player Bobby Portis recently returned from a 25-game suspension to test positive for the painkiller tramadol and has only played three games. I think these three games are the best examples of what you can expect in Game 1 in Indiana.
One is that the bench got deeper during garbage time, which made it an outlier. In the other two, Rivers only played four reserves, while Rollins only had 40 minutes in total. As a result, the Bucks carried out the attack through Giannis Antetocompo, and he effectively played the role of point.
The two MVPs finished with 10 and 15 assists in these two games. Additionally, he had 37 potential assists combined, according to NBA.com Advanced Stats. The river surrounded him with capable archers and forced him to choose his poison in defense.
Even before Portis returned, Antetokounmpo had double-digit assists. Overall, he did so in five of his final six games, with the only exception being a blown victory over the Pelicans, who he played only 26 minutes.
During this stretch, Antetokounmpo ranks second in the NBA with a potential assist of 20.2. At the top of the list are main ball handlers Trae Young, Tyrese Haliburton and Josh Giddey. Antetokounmpo replaces Lillard as the focus, and the river trusts his star to make the right decision.
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Pacers are probably prepared, but ranked 15th in defensive efficiency. Defense may be an improvement in the playoff game, but in the end this team doesn’t have many answers. Of course, there is always a risk of missing shots and antito compo that create open shots through “hockey assists,” but every bet has risk and unknown.
I’m a 37-25-1 ATS now Post Sports Section (entering the Mavericks +6.5 selection on Friday night) and trusting Antetokounmpo with over 7.5 assists is a great bet.
